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Who’ll survive with fewer losses – the blues or the yellows? The above charts are from the presentation by Professor Colin Rallings at the briefing on the May 3rd local elections organised by the Political Studies Association. Each year Rallings, together with his academic partner at the University of Plymouth, Michael Thrasher, compute a national equivalent vote share based on the local election results. The top chart shows the trend since 1997 which illustrates vividly why the 2012 elections hold…

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This is the place for PB’s easy going overnight conversation. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonOGH

National Equivalent vote share: CON 34%-4/LAB 37%-/LD 18%+2 The above national equivalent vote share projection, with comparisons on last year, is the annual one produced by Professor Rawlings & Thrasher of the University of Plymouth. The figures are derived from local by elections which in the past have proved to be quite a good predictor. They were produced at a briefing session in London this morning organised by the Political Studies Association. Compared with 2008 when most of the seats…

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Economist/Ipsos-MORI Issues Index The April Ipsos-MORI issues index for the Economist is just out and shows that concerns about unemployment are the highest since 1998. Petrol prices/fuel which was just 6% in February continues to rise and is now at 15% – reflecting both the threat of the tanker drivers strike and the increasing price of a litre. The other main changes are in the table above which features the top ten. We’ll have to wait until the full data…

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Don’t forget the PB gathering on Thursday night? I’m now pretty certain that I will be at Thursday’s PB party at the Dirty Dicks pub across the road from Liverpool Street Station in London. The proceedings start at about 6.30pm. Everybody is welcome. We are on the first floor at the back and there should be signs. Thanks again to Fat Steve for fixing it. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Surely it should have candidates in West Oxfordshire? According to the Conservative party’s election analyst, Rob Hayward, UKIP has only managed to field full slates of candidates in just six of the 181 council areas where elections are being held on May 3rd. These are Adur, Plymouth and Wirral, Eastleigh, Great Yarmouth and Sheffield. In the other 175 council area they are not competing in any wards or are contesting a limited number of wards. Surprisingly one area with a…

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Pollster says Clegg’s party could be down to 7 seats The above graphic was put out by UKIP overnight after the latest YouGov daily poll showed them, for the first time, in third place, This was a smart move by the purples and will heighten expectations for serious council seat gains for UKIP in the local elections a fortnight on Thursday. The 43/32/8/8 poll followed another survey earlier in the day amongst members of the YouGOV polling panel who reside…

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Labour opens up wide gaps in new polls The first of at least three new polls expected tonight is out and has LAB moving into a 10% lead. The pollster, TNS-BMRB has: CON 32% (-3), LAB 42% (+4), LD 10% (-1) and Others 16% (-) This is the largest gap recorded by the firm since the election and broadly follows the trends seen elsewhere. This post will be updated when other polls come out. Times Populus telephone poll has CON…

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