Tony Travers predicts Tory losses of 500-600

Tony Travers predicts Tory losses of 500-600

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LSE expert Tony Travers revises predictions for tomorrow: CON losses 500-600 not 250-350/LD 100-200 not 250-350/LAB gains 700-800 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 LSE expert Tony Travers tells Times that Lib Dems won’t do so badly ‘cos Tories in “such trouble” — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012 @AllanHeron I think Travers just talking about England&Wales. Not sure about Scotland. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 2, 2012

Will tomorrow see the return of the anti-Tory tactical voter?

Will tomorrow see the return of the anti-Tory tactical voter?

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Or will the 2011 dynamics be repeated? Last year’s local elections, the first to be held since the formation of the coalition, transformed the political landscape. The table above, prepared by Professor Colin Rallings for last month’s Political Studies Association briefing, sets out what happened in six different categories of council seats. The big picture from twelve months ago was that the Tories lost out to LAB but were able to make that up with gains from the Lib Dems…

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Can we just ignore YouGov’s London mayor record?

Can we just ignore YouGov’s London mayor record?

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2008 Mayoral Polls Date BORIS CON % KEN LAB % PADDICK % Actual Result 01/05/08 42 36 10 You Gov 01/05/08 43 36 13 You Gov 28/04/08 46 35 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 27/04/08 43 44 9 Ipsos MORI/Unison 24/04/08 38 41 12 YouGov 18/04/08 44 37 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 14/04/08 44 45 9 YouGov 11/04/08 45 39 12 Which will be closer YouGov or Populus? The polls, as I am sure we are all aware, are divided over the London…

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How will Tory MPs vote on the hacking committee report?

How will Tory MPs vote on the hacking committee report?

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Les Hinton, Tom Crone and Colin Myler all misled Parliament, DCMS Ctte rule. — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 1, 2012 Most explosive finding of MPs re hacking: Rupert Murdoch not a “fit person” to run a major international company. — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 1, 2012 Real political divisions coming out. Tory MP Philip Davies said certain people on cttee got carried away. Points out report only passed 6-4 — lucy manning (@lucymanning) May 1, 2012 Mensch: I would have…

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The first Mayoral phone poll give Boris a 12 percent lead

The first Mayoral phone poll give Boris a 12 percent lead

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Populus : BJ 46, KL 34, JJ 6, BP 5, SB 5, LW 3, CC 1; 2nd round BJ 56 KL 44 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 30, 2012 Lib Dem gen elec voters split their votes evenly, 49 per cent for Mr Johnson, 51 per cent for Mr Livingstone across both rounds — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) April 30, 2012 ComRes/ITV News: Hunt should resign say 49% to 16% ht.ly/aBLme — Andrew Hawkins (@Andrew_ComRes) April 30, 2012 So far…

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Has Cameron done enough to deal with Hunt-BSkyB

Has Cameron done enough to deal with Hunt-BSkyB

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Cameron going the extra mile for Jeremy Hunt, loading ever more on #Leveson buys time, but may not pay off in the long run. — adamboulton (@adamboultonSKY) April 30, 2012 Cam line of giving everyone a chance, “It’s called natural justice”, was exactly same line he used during Fox hunt. — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) April 30, 2012 PM just can’t help flashing the Flashman at Skinner. Yet another jibe re his pensionable age. PM allies think Skinner deserves every word…

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Ken still in with a shout with YouGov

Ken still in with a shout with YouGov

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Could he just squeeze in? The latest YouGov London poll for the Evening Standard is just out and has Boris only 3% ahead on first preferences. That margin is what the US media would call a “statistical dead heat”. Clearly, if YouGov have got this right, this battle is far closer than the other pollsters who’ve been covering it are making out. Before the weekend ComRes had a Boris 1st preference lead of 9% with Survation recording 11.2%. Hopefully they’ll…

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