Boris wins – YouGov wins – London divided

Boris wins – YouGov wins – London divided

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BBC news After an extraordinarily long wait which must throw into question the use of counting machine at elections, Boris Johnson has been returned for a second term as Mayor of London. The battle was much tighter than any of the polls had indicated with the final result being: Name Party 1st Pref % 2nd Pref % Final Total Boris Johnson CON 971,931 44.01 82,880 44.74 1,054,811 Ken Livingstone LAB 889,918 40.30 102,355 55.26 992,273 Jenny Jones GRN 98,913 4.48…

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Is Alex Salmond one of the day’s big losers?

Is Alex Salmond one of the day’s big losers?

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Why did the SNP make Glasgow their key target? In our PB prediction poll a couple of weeks ago a reasonable majority of participants said that the SNP would win control of the city of Glasgow. That was understandable given the hype that was coming from north of the border. For weeks this has been paraded as Alex Salmond’s big objective for May 3rd and the latest news is that the SNP has fallen short by some distance. In fact…

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CON still odds-on favourite for the general election – Betfair

CON still odds-on favourite for the general election – Betfair

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Betfair At what stage will the market switch? After being totally hammered in the local elections you would expect that punters would take a fresh look at the chances of the Tories winning most seats at the next general election. The panel above gives the prices at 0824 this morning with a price of 1.88 (that’s 0.88/1 in real money) on the Conservatives winning most seats. The blues have been solid favourites since the market was set up after the…

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It’s Labour’s and UKIP’s night

It’s Labour’s and UKIP’s night

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Projected national share of vote in UK #localelections: Lab 39%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 16%, Others 14% bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… #bbcvote2012 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 4, 2012 650 key wards:PNS – Con 31. Lab 39. LD 16. Oth 14Change on 2008: Con -9%, Lab +17%, LD -8%Change on 2011: Con -4%, Lab +3%, LD n/c — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 4, 2012 Where UKIP’s vote is up more than 10 points, Conservatives are doing about 5 points worse, says election…

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The councils to look out for overnight…

The councils to look out for overnight…

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A time-line based on what results we’ll see first Thanks to the Tory election analyst, Rob Hayward for this: CON-LD seats. Shire districts (not in terms of change of control but are the Tories gaining seats or not where they did last year) St Albans, Southend, Milton Keynes Later (but intermingled with CON-LD areas) will come CON-LAB contests. (Again not necessarily change of control) Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Harlow, Thurrock, Derby, Dudley Very much later and into tomorrow LD-LAB. With many…

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Now Opinium makes it 5 pollsters out of 5 for Boris

Now Opinium makes it 5 pollsters out of 5 for Boris

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But which one will be most accurate? There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium – the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%. Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In…

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