Nate Silver says Obama has a 61.6% chance of victory

Nate Silver says Obama has a 61.6% chance of victory

Is now the time to take your Romney profits? For months I’ve been saying that the best value bet for the White House race has been on Romney becoming next president. At the start of May I got £1500 on at an average Betfair price of 3.15. Today I’ve completely closed down the bet at an average price of 2.48 – so that’s a nice profit locked in. Judging when to get out of a position is always quite tricky…

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Is Warsi the proxy for getting at Dave?

Is Warsi the proxy for getting at Dave?

Has the PM too much at stake to let her go? Ladbrokes currently make Baroness Warsi the 7/4 favourite to be the next cabinet exit taking over that illustrious position from Jeremy Hunt. Certainly the issues that have been raised could make life a bit tricky but on expenses is she that much different from other senior members of her party including cabinet colleagues? We must remember that Warsi’s position in the party is down entirely to Dave and I…

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It’s Thursday night in the NightHawks Cafe

It’s Thursday night in the NightHawks Cafe

I’ve just got back from my hols after nearly three weeks away. Although I have been sort of following events it can take some time to catch up fully. For me the most irritating thing about getting back to my own computer is the deluge of messages about new updates that need to be installed. Thanks once again to TES for keeping the site going. Anyway – this is the PB NightHawks cafe – have a good night. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Will there be referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the EU?

Will there be referendum on the UK’s continued membership of the EU?

What are the chances of there being an IN / OUT EU referendum within the next five years? Less than 25% Between 25% and 50% Between 50% and 75% Greater than 75%      This is the issue that won’t go away. It’s said that Ed Miliband might promise such a vote while having one has been Lib Dem policy in the past. In the meantime pro-referendum campaigners are holding postal ballots in various parts of the country on whether…

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How much of an influence will money have on the Independence referendum?

How much of an influence will money have on the Independence referendum?

and the 2015 General election? The Sunday Times reported over the weekend that the no campaign was in disarray, due to major unionist parties donors not willing to donate to the no campaign. Willie Haughey, a tycoon who has given Labour about £1.3m since 2003, is the latest in a series of wealthy unionist businessmen refusing to back the No campaign. Sir Jack Harvie, a Scottish construction tycoon who has raised about £16m for the Tories, has already made it…

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