Could EdM be the only one left standing?

Could EdM be the only one left standing?

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Does today’s news put Dave’s future in doubt? Today’s dramatic announcement from the Crown Prosecution Service isn’t good news for David Cameron and must raise the prospect of him not making it through as leader to the general election set for May 2015. There is a growing anti-Cameron faction within the parliamentary party and there must be a possibility that this could add to it. This combined with the growing chorus for Vince Cable with the Lib Dems opens up…

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Is paying tradesmen in cash “morally wrong”?

Is paying tradesmen in cash “morally wrong”?

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Is this extending the tax avoidance effort too far? Several papers, including the Mail, are carrying reports of the comments by Tory treasury minister, David Gauke that paying cleaners and tradesmen cash-in-hand is “morally wrong” He said: ‘Getting a discount with your plumber by paying cash in hand is something that is a big cost to the Revenue and means others must pay more in tax.’ Asked explicitly if he disapproves of the practice, he said: ‘Yes, I think it’s…

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ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

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The July poll from ICM for the Guardian has all three parties unchanged. CON 34/LAB39/LD14 bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM. With Blair as leader it would beLAB 36%(-3), CON 34%(nc) LD 15%9+1) and others 14%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM: Dave/Geroge trusted by 40% on the economy compared with 29% for the Two Eds. Last month the lead was 9% bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 Just 33% tell ICM that…

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Should Osborne go or stay? The pollsters’ verdict

Should Osborne go or stay? The pollsters’ verdict

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“Osborne should…” GO STAY Populus 38%* 15%* ComRes 44% 20% YouGov 45% 20% But he’s secure, surely, while Dave is PM? Over the past week three major pollsters have asked those in their samples whether the Chancellor, George Osborne, should go. The simplified results are above. The Populus question was “In the next couple of months David Cameron is likely to hold a reshuffle of his Cabinet, for each of the following members of his Cabinet. Please say whether a)…

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Lords Reform – an alternative

Lords Reform – an alternative

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Might a plan like this win more approval? Conspiracy theorists have ascribed the revolt by many Conservative backbenchers earlier this month in the vote on Lords reform to any number of factors. What it really boiled down to was that it was viewed as the wrong solution to an irrelevant problem. It’s seen as an irrelevant problem by many in the Commons on both sides of the chamber because whatever the theoretical deficiencies of the Lords, its unelectedness assures the…

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Continuation thread

Continuation thread

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With the final day of the Tour de France my mind has been on things other than politics. This has been a brilliant day for cycling enthusiasts like me made even better by picking up a four figure sum in betting winnings. Thanks to Ladbrokes for paying out so quickly. I was going to write on the US election but that will have to wait. Mike Smithson Recent Threads

Will YouGov fuel the Cable speculation?

Will YouGov fuel the Cable speculation?

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Preferred Chancellor Total Vince Cable 22% William Hague 16% Ken Clarke 9% Phillip Hammond 3% Theresa May 2% Nick Clegg 2% Don’t know 47% We’ve now got the full details of the Sunday Times YouGov finding on who those politicians it is thought would make the best replacement Chancellor for Mr.Osborne. As can be seen there was a high don’t know element. By netting off the don’t knows we find that of those expressing a view 42% go for the…

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Was Vince putting his hat into the ring for the LD leadership?

Was Vince putting his hat into the ring for the LD leadership?

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Could the 69 year old be serious? Five years ago when Ming Campbell decided to step down as Lib Dem leader Vince didn’t put his name forward because he and others thought that his age would be against him. He’s now 69 and his FT interview this morning has set off a buzz that he might indeed be considering such a possibility. His response when the question was put was that he “wouldn’t exclude it” which is further than anything…

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