David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie?

David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie?

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David Herdson asks: What odds an electoral tie? goo.gl/7d21p twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 If it happened we could a Romney-Biden pairing? If the US presidential polling is correct, then Barack Obama is heading for a second term, on a much closer result than his first. It may be that Romney even wins the national vote but Obama’s narrow but consistent lead in key swing states would give him the 270+ Electoral College votes he needs for…

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US punters are moving away from Romney in Ohio

US punters are moving away from Romney in Ohio

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Intrade price on Romney in Ohio drops 10% in two days. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2012 State polls have Obama widening the gap Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

David Herdson: Why there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon

David Herdson: Why there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon

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David Herdson argues that there’ll be no EU referendum anytime soon. goo.gl/L7flQ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2012 Where do we stand after the big vote? The Coalition’s reform requiring all future EU treaties that transfer power to the EU to be put to a referendum was intended both as a brake on UK involvement in EU integration, and as a landmine under the kind of government that might be inclined to do that – either they’d have…

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The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

The Transatlantic betting gap grows even wider. Mitt 32.6 on Intrade but 22.2% on Betfair

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The Intrade – Betfair gap gets much wider. Romney 32.6% on Intrade but 22.2% on the UK-based Betfair twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2012 A very common feature in the betting for next President is the huge gaps that we’ve seen between the markets like Intrade that have a lot of US customers and those, like Betfair, that don’t. The Romney price on Intrade has been fairly stable today as the chart shows but his nose-dive on Betfair…

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Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip?

Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip?

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Did Cameron and Osborne over-celebrate the end of double-dip? Henry G Manson thinks they did.goo.gl/1tf5m twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2012 Henry G Manson on the politics of the GDP figures So eager were the Conservatives to trumpet the latest quarter’s economic growth figures that David Cameron almost fell foul of the rules preventing him from breaching the official publication time. The Prime Minister told Ed Miliband in a heated exchange at Prime Ministers Question Time a fortnight…

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Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

Mitt Romney’s Intrade price is moving downwards after its five point increase this morning

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Latest chart showing how the Intrade Romney price has moved back following its sharp increase this morning. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The Betfair-Intrade split remains. Betfair makes him a 25% shot while Intrade has him at 32% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 So if you want to bet on Obama choose Intrade. Romney punters should got to Betfair Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK…

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