Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

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Could Nadine’s suspension provoke her into switching to UKIP? Has the chief whip been too harsh? bit.ly/RGG3cR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 Her suspension might just provoke a switch Ladbrokes have tonight tightened the odds to evens that there’ll be a defection to UKIP during this parliament. This follows the move by the Chief Whip to suspend Nadine Dorries as a Conservative MP because she’s taking part in he latest series of “I’m a celebrity get me…

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A Marf prediction cartoon and the PB-William Hill White House competition

A Marf prediction cartoon and the PB-William Hill White House competition

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This cartoon on forecasting the US election will be going up on Politicalbetting.com later. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 How do you think you are going to do? Election day and thanks to Marf for her cartoon on Nate Silver. As many will recall thanks to the generosity of William Hill we were able to launch in September the 2012 White House Race prediction competition. All you had to do was guess the vote share winner gap,down…

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Exactly half way through this Parliament and the “glue” that keeps the coalition together is Labour’s lead in the polls

Exactly half way through this Parliament and the “glue” that keeps the coalition together is Labour’s lead in the polls

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Today’s the mid-point in the 2010-2015 parliament and coalition wrangling has never been greater. Can it last? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 The splits are becoming greater by the week? We’ve been so focussed on the US election that we’ve hardly looked at domestic politics for some time that perhaps this morning we should focus on the coalition. For it is exactly two and a half years today from the general election and we are half way…

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Just 0.4 percentage points separate the two men on the eve of the election

Just 0.4 percentage points separate the two men on the eve of the election

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The final swing state polls from Politicalwire, Colorado: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling) Florida: Romney 52%, Obama 47% (InsiderAdvantage) Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling) Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Pulse Opinion Research) Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Zogby) Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (UNF) Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (American Research Group) New Hampshire: Obama 51%, Romney 48% (WMUR) New Hampshire: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (American Research Group) New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (New…

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In praise of Nate Silver – the election and polling analyst for the New York Times

In praise of Nate Silver – the election and polling analyst for the New York Times

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Nate Silver final day forecast – an 86.3% probability for Barack Obama. goo.gl/r5e5W twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2012 Tomorrow could be the day that his approach is vindicated One person who has had to face an extraordinary amount of abuse over the past fortnight has been the New York Times election analyst, Nate Silver. The basic problem is that his complex statistical model has been showing that Obama has a good chance of victory predictions that have…

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Romney goes into the final day of the campaign without being ahead in any of the closing national polls

Romney goes into the final day of the campaign without being ahead in any of the closing national polls

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The latest batch of final national polls at RCP all have either Obama ahead or the race tied twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2012 Obama also has the edge in many of the closing state polls After a period when we were getting a different picture from the national polls compared with the state ones the overall view of tomorrow’s election is becoming clearer. The president has made small but significant gains in the latest batch of final…

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US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

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The Intrade market with its large US customer base has Romney 10% higher than Betfair. see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair Romney price shows just a small dip in past 24 hours. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair, of course goes to great lengths to ensure that people in the US cannot use its services. I’ve not moved my own betting – still make the same profits whichever one wins….

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Meet Jon Husted – the Republican in charge of voting in Ohio and the reason why I am not going all in on Obama being re-elected

Meet Jon Husted – the Republican in charge of voting in Ohio and the reason why I am not going all in on Obama being re-elected

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Meet Jon Husted, boss of voting in Ohio & the reason why I am not going all in on Obama goo.gl/D4Owx twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Punters should factor in the Ohio legal battles There are huge legal battles taking place in Ohio against moves by John Husted, the Republican Secretary of State and the man in charge of the state’s crucial elections on Tuesday. He’s already caused controversy by trying to limit early voting and this…

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