The money moves away from Ed Balls after his lack-lustre response to Osborne’s statement

The money moves away from Ed Balls after his lack-lustre response to Osborne’s statement

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Ed Miliband doesn’t look too pleased with his Shadow Chancellor’s performance twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 His “next chancellor” price moves out to 2/1 The main betting market response to today’s autumn statement has been an easing in the price of Ed Balls in the next chancellor market. Ladbrokes had him as 6/4 favourite which has now moved out to 2/1. Amongst other LAB figures in the betting up and coming 2010 newbie, Rachel Reeves, has moved…

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Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

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Pie chart showing today’s YouGov poll which has CON just one off its lowest level with pollster twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Today’s YouGov poll has the Tories down at 30% – just one point above their lowest level yet with the firm and 14% behind Labour. Although it is always dangerous reading too much into one single daily poll this latest finding means that the Labour lead has been at 12 or more in five out…

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The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

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By Dr. Rob Ford – University of Manchester As pb.com readers are doubtless aware, the UK Independence Party had their two best ever by-election results in recent weeks – scoring a record 14% in Corby in mid-November, then topping this again with 21% in the Rotherham by-election last week. This sharp rise in support – and the continued polling and by-election misery of the Liberal Democrats – have understandably lead to a lot of discussion. Where is support for UKIP…

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The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

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Chart showing how the total of Lib Dem seats has been or not linked to vote share from 1987 – 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 Tonight I’m off to the Political Studies Association annual awards in London. The next thread header is a detailed analysis on UKIP electoral prospects by Doctor Rob Ford, Politics Lecturer at the University of Manchester. He’s currently working on a book with Matthew Goodwin which looks at support for the BNP…

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Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

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The latest PaddyPower general election outcome prices bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill  that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1. I can’t see…

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Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

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I’d need better odds than that William Hill have put up a new market on whether UKIP, now riding high, will win a parliamentary by-election this parliament, With the election scheduled for May 2015 the by-election would have to occur within the next two years and five months and after the latest crop there are none in the offing. The bet breaks down into two elements – the chances of a suitable by-election coming up and the chances of UKIP…

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