Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

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2015 could see the return of big-time tactical voting A year before the 2005 general election PB reported on analysis by Peter Kellner which sought to measure the impact of the so called “electoral bias against the Tories” in terms of the Conservative seats the party did not get. The boundaries and unequal-sized constituencies was one factor which Kellner reckoned cost the Tories 21 seats. He estimated that in 2001 there were 10 extra Labour seats in relation to overall…

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Politicians should be less frightened of the national newspapers given that far fewer people are buying them

Politicians should be less frightened of the national newspapers given that far fewer people are buying them

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The press ain’t wot it used to be. Look at these declining circulation numbers. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 EdM re-takes the lead in YouGov’s leader ratings Cameron slips back in YouGov’s leadership ratings and EdM is back ahead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Dave could be facing a big challenge winning support for press control without legislation

Dave could be facing a big challenge winning support for press control without legislation

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The first post Leveson report poll suggests that Cameron might be on the wrong side of public opinion. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 First Leveson polling reaction: By 50-29%, people tell YouGov that Cameron was wrong to oppose Leveson’s proposals for new legislation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 50-26%, those sampled by YouGov think Clegg was right to back Leveson’s proposal. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 46-32%, people tell YouGov that…

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More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

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How UKIP supporters assess the importance of the EU as an issue. Some remarkable findings – see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 49%, though, rate immigration as key Ipsos-MORI aggregated data from their issues index polling will be published next week with the quite remarkable finding that just 20% of UKIP voters mention EU/Europe as a key issue facing the country. The one area that they are really concerned about is immigration with 49%. The Ipsos-MORI…

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Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

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David Herdson asks:Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates? bit.ly/VkNSd8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 David Herdson says there might be a case based on the polling In one sense, UKIP has enjoyed a Golden November. In the PCC elections, every one of their 24 candidates kept his or her deposit, their shares of the vote ranging from 6.9% in Merseyside to 18.7% in Northamptonshire. In the six parliamentary…

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Dave’s secret supply of possible supporters? CON 2010 voters now saying “don’t know”

Dave’s secret supply of possible supporters? CON 2010 voters now saying “don’t know”

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The 2010 Tories who now say they don’t know. Dave’s secret supply of voters? There’s a lot of them – see chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 One of the segments of voters that hardly ever gets mentioned is made up of those who voted last time but now say that they don’t know. They haven’t switched to another party but, for the moment at least, they are not ready to say they’ll do what they did…

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Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

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As predicted by the betting markets three emphatic wins for LAB in the three by-elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 After the overnight by-elections Ladbrokes make it 2/1 shot that UKIP wins a seat at next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 Ladbrokes is offering 4/1 that UKIP outvotes the Lib Dems at the next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 An okay night for UKIP but still miles…

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