The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

The correlation, or lack, of between Lib Dem seat totals and overall vote share achieved 1987-2010

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Chart showing how the total of Lib Dem seats has been or not linked to vote share from 1987 – 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 Tonight I’m off to the Political Studies Association annual awards in London. The next thread header is a detailed analysis on UKIP electoral prospects by Doctor Rob Ford, Politics Lecturer at the University of Manchester. He’s currently working on a book with Matthew Goodwin which looks at support for the BNP…

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Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

Revisiting the “hung parliament – no coalition” bet

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The latest PaddyPower general election outcome prices bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2012 My July 12/1 with Hills looks even better value Before the summer holidays I got £100 on at 12/1 with William Hill  that the general election would produce another hung parliament but there would be no formal coalition deal. The price has tightened a fair bit since then and the last time it was up on their web-site it was 6/1. I can’t see…

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Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

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I’d need better odds than that William Hill have put up a new market on whether UKIP, now riding high, will win a parliamentary by-election this parliament, With the election scheduled for May 2015 the by-election would have to occur within the next two years and five months and after the latest crop there are none in the offing. The bet breaks down into two elements – the chances of a suitable by-election coming up and the chances of UKIP…

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Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

Grant Shapps’ General Election headache number 1: Keeping the LD 2010 vote up in LAB-CON battle-grounds

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2015 could see the return of big-time tactical voting A year before the 2005 general election PB reported on analysis by Peter Kellner which sought to measure the impact of the so called “electoral bias against the Tories” in terms of the Conservative seats the party did not get. The boundaries and unequal-sized constituencies was one factor which Kellner reckoned cost the Tories 21 seats. He estimated that in 2001 there were 10 extra Labour seats in relation to overall…

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Politicians should be less frightened of the national newspapers given that far fewer people are buying them

Politicians should be less frightened of the national newspapers given that far fewer people are buying them

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The press ain’t wot it used to be. Look at these declining circulation numbers. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 EdM re-takes the lead in YouGov’s leader ratings Cameron slips back in YouGov’s leadership ratings and EdM is back ahead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Dave could be facing a big challenge winning support for press control without legislation

Dave could be facing a big challenge winning support for press control without legislation

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The first post Leveson report poll suggests that Cameron might be on the wrong side of public opinion. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 First Leveson polling reaction: By 50-29%, people tell YouGov that Cameron was wrong to oppose Leveson’s proposals for new legislation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 50-26%, those sampled by YouGov think Clegg was right to back Leveson’s proposal. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 46-32%, people tell YouGov that…

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More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

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How UKIP supporters assess the importance of the EU as an issue. Some remarkable findings – see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 49%, though, rate immigration as key Ipsos-MORI aggregated data from their issues index polling will be published next week with the quite remarkable finding that just 20% of UKIP voters mention EU/Europe as a key issue facing the country. The one area that they are really concerned about is immigration with 49%. The Ipsos-MORI…

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