Will voters buy the line that lower tax rates produce a higher yield? How long before the blues get back into the lead?

Will voters buy the line that lower tax rates produce a higher yield? How long before the blues get back into the lead?

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Can George convince us that lower tax rates produce a higher yield. Will the polls turn for the Tories? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2012 When will the Tories get back to their pre-March 2012 budget polling position with ICM – a 3% lead? Before June 30th 2013 Before December 31st 2013 Before June 30th 2014 Before December 31st 2014 Before May 7th 2015 Not until after the general election      For me the most signficant feature…

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UKIP averaging just under 17pc with the 60+ group – electors most likely to vote and least likely to change mind

UKIP averaging just under 17pc with the 60+ group – electors most likely to vote and least likely to change mind

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UKIP’S shares in last 5 YouGov polls amongst the 60+ age have been 17, 17, 13, 19 and 18. 60+ most likely to vote &least likely to change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 The 60+ age group in today’s YouGov had CON 35%: LAB 35%: LD 9%: UKIP 17% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 UKIP still in double figures in latest YouGov: CON 32%, LAB 44%, LD 9%, UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6,…

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No overall majority becomes joint favourite with a LAB majority on Betfair’s general election market

No overall majority becomes joint favourite with a LAB majority on Betfair’s general election market

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A LAB majority no longer the favourite on Betfair’s General Election market. Data based on latest matched bets twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 6, 2012 LAB slips out of the top slot The above show the latest prices matched on the three main options on Betfair’s general election markets. This marks something of a change because over the past few months Labour has been favourite with the price reaching a 41%. Note that I am converting Betfair decmimal odds…

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Osborne’s statement: The verdict of the FT

Osborne’s statement: The verdict of the FT

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How the Financial Times sums up Osborne’s statement twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 And the Guardian twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

The money moves away from Ed Balls after his lack-lustre response to Osborne’s statement

The money moves away from Ed Balls after his lack-lustre response to Osborne’s statement

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Ed Miliband doesn’t look too pleased with his Shadow Chancellor’s performance twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 His “next chancellor” price moves out to 2/1 The main betting market response to today’s autumn statement has been an easing in the price of Ed Balls in the next chancellor market. Ladbrokes had him as 6/4 favourite which has now moved out to 2/1. Amongst other LAB figures in the betting up and coming 2010 newbie, Rachel Reeves, has moved…

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Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

Osborne’s political task today is to get the blues back into the game

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Pie chart showing today’s YouGov poll which has CON just one off its lowest level with pollster twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 5, 2012 Today’s YouGov poll has the Tories down at 30% – just one point above their lowest level yet with the firm and 14% behind Labour. Although it is always dangerous reading too much into one single daily poll this latest finding means that the Labour lead has been at 12 or more in five out…

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The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

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By Dr. Rob Ford – University of Manchester As pb.com readers are doubtless aware, the UK Independence Party had their two best ever by-election results in recent weeks – scoring a record 14% in Corby in mid-November, then topping this again with 21% in the Rotherham by-election last week. This sharp rise in support – and the continued polling and by-election misery of the Liberal Democrats – have understandably lead to a lot of discussion. Where is support for UKIP…

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