Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

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Test your skill in this year’s PB Prediction Competition “Never underestimate the determination of a quiet man” said Iain Duncan Smith shortly before his defenestration as Conservative leader. But after 2012, what will the quieter year of 2013 hold? How will UKIP perform in the opinion polls? Can the coalition hold together? Will Berlusconi return as Italian PM once more? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for the year ahead. As before the…

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By 67pc to 12pc voters tell ComRes that Cameron would appear a coward if he didn’t take part in election TV debates

By 67pc to 12pc voters tell ComRes that Cameron would appear a coward if he didn’t take part in election TV debates

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67% tell ComRes/Express poll say Cameron would appear a “coward” if he didn’t take part in TV debates like in 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2013 There’s a new poll out tonight by ComRes for the Daily Express highlighting the dangers for Dave of appearing to be reluctant about taking part in election TV debates. The 67%-12% split saying he would appear a coward if not there is quite emphatic. The debates will help being the election…

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Only Dave going could threaten Osborne’s survival as Chancellor until the election

Only Dave going could threaten Osborne’s survival as Chancellor until the election

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A great pic of George Osborne from PMQs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2013 Should you take the 7/4 that he won’t make it? It’s been a big week politically for George Osborne with his strategy on the 1% limit on benfit increases being the main domestic political news of 2013. Osborne’s plan to put Labour on the spot has worked and what LAB MPs in marginal seats did last night will surely be used by the Tories…

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The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

The seats where the Tories ought to be praying for a Lib Dem revival

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Corporeal looks at the yellows in CON-LAB battle-grounds There seems have been few Conservative tears shed over the decline in Lib Dem poll ratings, but there might be at least a few blues quietly hoping for a yellow revival. The polling suggests that the Lib Dem vote will be declining severely. This will obviously affect the results in Lib Dem held seats (we’ll get to those) and have MPs facing LD challenges sleeping rather easier, but it’s also going to…

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Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

Is LAB trying to spook Shapps with the publication of its target seat list?

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Are all 106 seats named really targets? The big general election news today has been the publication by LAB of the 106 marginal seats that it will try to win in 2015. The full list is here. At the launch Tom Watson MP said the aim was to achieve an overall majority of 60 – if all 106 seats were won then it would be 80. But I just wonder how serious the red team is and whether this is…

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A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

A challenging time for LAB as the negative impact of Osborne’s March 2012 budget appears to be waning

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Fewer people are blaming the CON-LD coalition for the cuts than at any time since the March 2012 budget. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 32 months after losing power LAB is still being blamed YouGov’s regular tracker “Who’s most to blame for current spending cuts?” is one I return to time and time again because I believe it might be a good pointer by the time we get to 2015. Today’s latest figures are refelected…

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The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

The power of incumbency: The 2010 LAB experience

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2010 election: How LAB incumbents not implicated in expenses scandal did against those who were and new candidates. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2013 Even expenses scandal MPs did better This is the second our charts based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford, and looks at the impact of incumbency at the 2010 general election. This time the focus is on the governing party that was seeking…

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Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

Were Dave and Nick convincing that the coalition will go the full distance?

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Punters not totally convinced that the coalition will go the full distance.See timing of election prices twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013 Should we be betting on a pre-2015 election? My view remains that the glue that bonds the coalition partners together is the LAB poll ratings. As long as it looks as though both coalition partners would be hammered then they are going to stick it out. Now if the Tories could stage a remarkable recovery then…

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