UKIP ends 2012 still with zero MPs and holding two fewer council seats

UKIP ends 2012 still with zero MPs and holding two fewer council seats

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How Farage’s party has done in the year’s local by-elections On the face of it UKIP is riding high and finishing 2012 with, in some polls, shares of up to 16%. Yet in real elections where real voters cast real votes the picture is very different. In the local elections in May Farage’s party ended with no net increase in the number of council seats held and in local by-elections they’ve suffered set-backs. In past three weeks as the national…

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With three victories out of the last five the cycling lobby has got these SPOTY elections sewn up

With three victories out of the last five the cycling lobby has got these SPOTY elections sewn up

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My tip for the 2013 SPOTY election – Chris Froome currently 7/2 2nd favourite for the next Tour de France twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2012 If Froome wins the next TdF then he must be a good bet for SPOTY 2013 Last night in an election that attracted 1.5 million votes cyclist Bradley Wiggins became the 2013 Sporting Personality of the Year – a victory that always seemed likely even with so many strong contestants in the…

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Now might be a good moment to look at the Dave replacement betting

Now might be a good moment to look at the Dave replacement betting

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Michael Gove now the leading MP in thebetting for next Tory leader. Boris is favourite but currently ineligible twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 Is the incumbent really so secure? For me striking feature on PB this weekend has that one of the site’s posters who has been an unwavering Cameron-loyalist has become the latest to turn, Certainly Dave’s circle of close supporters at Westminster appears to be getting smaller and I just wonder whether we might see…

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The latest YouGov has UKIP equalling its low point with the pollster in more than a month

The latest YouGov has UKIP equalling its low point with the pollster in more than a month

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Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times has a more familiar look to it. See pie chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 YouGov has voters backing same sex marriage by 55% to 36%.CON supporters are split 45-45 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 63% tell YouGov that they’d be comfortable if a son/daughter came out as being gay.25% said they’d be uncomfortable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 Update – another online poll has UKIP on…

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The party described as mostly fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists by David Cameron hits 14% with ComRes and Opinium

The party described as mostly fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists by David Cameron hits 14% with ComRes and Opinium

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The party described as mostly fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists by David Cameron hits 14% with two online pollsters. UKIP has risen to 14 per cent, its highest ever rating in a ComRes poll, in an exclusive survey for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Labour enjoys an 11-point lead. The LD drop is just 1%. ComRes CON      28% (-3)  LAB   39% (-4)   LD   9% (-1) UKIP    14% (+6)  In the last ComRes phone…

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There should be three online polls overnight

There should be three online polls overnight

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This evening I’m out and will report on the information we have about the weekend polls when I return. At least three are expected – all of them online surveys which cost far less than telephone surveys. There’s ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, Opinium for the Observer, and, of course, the regular YouGov for the Sunday Times. Opinium could be interesting in particular for its UKIP share. A fortnight ago in the wake of the by-elections…

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Sports Personality – who is your money on?

Sports Personality – who is your money on?

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Does the Golden Year have one last surprise in store? Political betting is generally about understanding two things in any particular contest: the candidates and the electorate. So with big TV votes. In the case of Sports Personality of the Year (Spoty), the electorate is particularly important given that the candidates play a largely passive role – what we know about them isn’t likely to change between now and tomorrow night. As things stand, Bradley Wiggins is a very strong…

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On gay marriage Cameron is doing the right thing for the wrong reasons

On gay marriage Cameron is doing the right thing for the wrong reasons

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Henry G Manson on the week’s big issue Prince Metternich supposedly wondered on the death of the French Diplomat Talleyrand: “What did he mean by that?” In this vein it’s worth asking what are the Prime Ministers motives are and what does it tell us about how he sees his and his parties fortunes and future? David Cameron’s support for homosexual marriage is the right thing, yet it seems very odd to me that he has he chosen to do…

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