Two new phone polls are out, and they are mirroring the online pollsters which see UKIP increasing. Populus for the Times Conservatives 29 (minus 6) Labour 40 (no change) Lib Dems 11 (plus 2) UKIP 10 (plus 6) It also said that 12 per cent of those who voted Tory in 2010 now say they would support UKIP, and UKIP are up 8% in a year with Populus. UKIP is up six points and the Tories down six points, although…
How Farage’s party has done in the year’s local by-elections On the face of it UKIP is riding high and finishing 2012 with, in some polls, shares of up to 16%. Yet in real elections where real voters cast real votes the picture is very different. In the local elections in May Farage’s party ended with no net increase in the number of council seats held and in local by-elections they’ve suffered set-backs. In past three weeks as the national…
My tip for the 2013 SPOTY election – Chris Froome currently 7/2 2nd favourite for the next Tour de France twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2012 If Froome wins the next TdF then he must be a good bet for SPOTY 2013 Last night in an election that attracted 1.5 million votes cyclist Bradley Wiggins became the 2013 Sporting Personality of the Year – a victory that always seemed likely even with so many strong contestants in the…
Michael Gove now the leading MP in thebetting for next Tory leader. Boris is favourite but currently ineligible twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 Is the incumbent really so secure? For me striking feature on PB this weekend has that one of the site’s posters who has been an unwavering Cameron-loyalist has become the latest to turn, Certainly Dave’s circle of close supporters at Westminster appears to be getting smaller and I just wonder whether we might see…
Today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times has a more familiar look to it. See pie chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 YouGov has voters backing same sex marriage by 55% to 36%.CON supporters are split 45-45 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 63% tell YouGov that they’d be comfortable if a son/daughter came out as being gay.25% said they’d be uncomfortable — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2012 Update – another online poll has UKIP on…
The party described as mostly fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists by David Cameron hits 14% with two online pollsters. UKIP has risen to 14 per cent, its highest ever rating in a ComRes poll, in an exclusive survey for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Labour enjoys an 11-point lead. The LD drop is just 1%. ComRes CON   28% (-3) LAB  39% (-4)  LD  9% (-1) UKIP  14% (+6) In the last ComRes phone…
This evening I’m out and will report on the information we have about the weekend polls when I return. At least three are expected – all of them online surveys which cost far less than telephone surveys. There’s ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, Opinium for the Observer, and, of course, the regular YouGov for the Sunday Times. Opinium could be interesting in particular for its UKIP share. A fortnight ago in the wake of the by-elections…
Does the Golden Year have one last surprise in store? Political betting is generally about understanding two things in any particular contest: the candidates and the electorate. So with big TV votes. In the case of Sports Personality of the Year (Spoty), the electorate is particularly important given that the candidates play a largely passive role – what we know about them isn’t likely to change between now and tomorrow night. As things stand, Bradley Wiggins is a very strong…