The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

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LAB lead down to 5% in the January ICM poll.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 CON 1% ahead with men but 16% behind with women With a record for accuracy and polling innovation going back over two decades the telephone survey by ICM for the Guardian is the polling event of the month. The firm is widely regarded as “the gold standard”. The latest numbers just published see the LDs edging back up 2 to 15%, the…

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MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

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Three dramatic headlines on the BBC’s main politics news page. bbc.co.uk/news/politics/ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 The big political headlines this lunchtime Number 10 has been wise to waste no time in re-fixing Dave’s big EU speech which should have been given in the Netherlands on Friday. Unless the briefings have been very much off target we’ve got a fair idea already what’s in it – a promise for a post 2015 referendum after the completion of…

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Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

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Does Cameron fear Farage? David Cameron has argued that UKIP should effectively be excluded from televised leaders’ debates at the next election. His defence is “the TV debates should be about, you know, the parties that are going to form the government, in my view.” He really will have to do better than this. The Prime Minister gives the impression of defending a cosy cartel of parties (aided by first past the post) that is conspiring against the public. Worst…

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If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

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An extended chart showing all YouGov EU referendum polling since last May’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 The bookies tighten the odds on a “remain” outcome Until this morning those pressing for an in/out EU referendum have been buoyed by their almost certain belief, supported by the polling, that the outcome would be a vote to leave All they had to do was to get agreement on a referendum and all would move their way…

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YouGov headlines: Stay in leads on referendum voting; Ukip drop to 4th in Euro 2014 voting; Ukip 7% Westminster share lowest level for months

YouGov headlines: Stay in leads on referendum voting; Ukip drop to 4th in Euro 2014 voting; Ukip 7% Westminster share lowest level for months

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Latest YouGov Westminster voting intentions – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 7%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 YouGov’s sensational 2014 Euro elections polling with comparisons on last week.See table twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 YouGov: staying in now has a 6% lead when people are asked how they would vote in an EU referendum.Last week leave was 7% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 If YouGov is right there’ve been big…

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Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

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Sun Times Dave speculation:Ladbrokes offer 3/1that Dave won’t be CON leader at gen election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 Sunday Times says “increasing number of CON MPs are privately discussing the possibility” of attempting to unseat Dave before the 2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 S Times quotinga” well-placed source” said that up to 17 MPs had now written letters of “no confidence” in Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 The Sunday…

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David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

David Herdson asks: Is the Euro-crisis over?

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And if so, where does that leave Cameron’s big speech? For something that neither starts nor ends, an economic crisis can be a pretty potent thing. Or to refine that assertion, it’s obvious when the crisis is in full swing but it’s impossible to say when it’s started or when it’s ended; they just emerge or build, and decline or fade. This time last year, there was huge doubt over whether Greece would default, whether Italy or Spain would need…

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Gallup boost for the Obama plan for stronger gun laws as the President prepares to start his second term

Gallup boost for the Obama plan for stronger gun laws as the President prepares to start his second term

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Pie chart showing the Gallup poll break-down on support for the Obama plans for stronger gun laws twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 But he’s got a big battle ahead Tomorrow morning, in private because it is a Sunday, Barack Obama will be sworn in to start his second term in the White House. The big public ceremony takes place on Monday. He’s already made clear that a key early objective is his plan, announced on Wednesday, for…

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