As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote share

As we await another bumper poll for #Ukip – Ladbrokes open a market on the party’s general election vote share

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Ukip gen election vote share of less than 5% the 5/4 fav on Ladbrokes new UKIP vote share market bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013 Will the grumpy old white men stick with Farage? Tonight we’ll see what looks like another great poll for Nigel Farage’s party from Opinium for the Observer. In preparation the pollster issued a press release trying to explain the methodological reason why it thought its UKIP numbers were amongst the highest. In…

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Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

Has Rangers Football Club just made Alex Salmonds job harder?

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BBC news What would pulling out do to the independence debate? Identity is one of the most potent forces in politics; the sense of who we are individually and collectively. That’s why the unusually strongly-worded statement from Rangers’ chief executive this week in response to the football authorities’ proposal there potentially brings two of the stronger identities into conflict: those of nationality and football club support. The threat from Rangers to leave if a restructure leaves them in the bottom…

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General Elections from 1950-2010

General Elections from 1950-2010

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Sixty years of general elections. Chart showing the big trends from 1950-2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 @samiraahmeduk The data came from British Electoral Facts by Rallings & Thrasher. The chart was prepared by Politicalbetting’s Tomas Forsey — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 The big trend chart from Corporeal

Henry G Manson asks: Where next for David Miliband?

Henry G Manson asks: Where next for David Miliband?

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Could he soon return to the LAB front bench? There’s been a flurry of speculation about David Miliband this week and what future role he might play under Ed Miliband’s leadership, if any. Some have speculated that he could replace Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor, but a more likely position would be that of Shadow Foreign Secretary. This was a job he occupied for two and a half years under Gordon Brown and is one he would relish returning to….

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By May 2015 Cameron’s decision to campaign hard against AV might not look very smart

By May 2015 Cameron’s decision to campaign hard against AV might not look very smart

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How UKIP is eating into the CON vote – pie chart of CON 2010 voters from today’s YouGov data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 Under FPTP LAB is the main winner The pie chart above is derived from today’s YouGov polling and shows the current voting intentions of those who supported Dave’s party in 2010. The 2010 data is based on polling carried out by YouGov immediatly after the election and not how polling respondents remember it…

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Which Lib Dem would have to go to create a vacancy for Huhne?

Which Lib Dem would have to go to create a vacancy for Huhne?

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Clegg says he’d like Huhne back in the Cabinet if he’s cleared. See – m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013 We are now talking about a possible return for Chris Huhne following comments by Nick Clegg today. This is from the BBC report:- ““I would like to see Chris return, if he is cleared of everything,” he said. Mr Clegg described Mr Huhne, whom he beat to the Lib Dem leadership in 2007, as an “accomplished politician……

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Could the Etonian whose actions cost the Tories 20 seats really succeed Cameron?

Could the Etonian whose actions cost the Tories 20 seats really succeed Cameron?

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Ladbrokes move Etonian Jesse Norman next CON leader price from 50/1 to 33/1 following Speccie article. This is him. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013 There’s been a flurry of activity following an article by Bruce Anderson in the Spectator tipping Jesse Norman to be Dave’s successor. Norman, who entered the commons in May 2010, came to prominence in July 2012 when he organised and led the hugely successful rebellion that ensured that the upper house would continue…

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Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

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Test your skill in this year’s PB Prediction Competition “Never underestimate the determination of a quiet man” said Iain Duncan Smith shortly before his defenestration as Conservative leader. But after 2012, what will the quieter year of 2013 hold? How will UKIP perform in the opinion polls? Can the coalition hold together? Will Berlusconi return as Italian PM once more? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for the year ahead. As before the…

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