When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

When are we going to get some decent general election markets?

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Latest odds from Ladbrokes on number of LD seats.bit.ly/c5gpH6. See here twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Why are the bookies being so tardy? Within just six days of the 2005 general election seat markets were opened on the following race. Interestingly looking back at my post the opening spreads were: LAB 325-335: CON 226-232: LD 54-60. Those who were brave enough to bet on the Tories in May 2005 did very well indeed. Interestingly the mid-point for…

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New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone

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How much will it be different in 2015? New academic work that has just been published shows that LD MPs have in the past enjoyed extremely large incumbency advantages on a level with those of US congressmen, This is said to have been worth between 5% and 15%. LAB and CON MPs, by contrast, had incumbency advantages of about 2% and 1% respectively. The report, published in Electoral Studies by Timothy Hallam Smith of the University of Nottingham, estimates that…

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The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

The latest ICM phone poll finds that the LAB lead is down 3 to just 5 percent

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LAB lead down to 5% in the January ICM poll.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 CON 1% ahead with men but 16% behind with women With a record for accuracy and polling innovation going back over two decades the telephone survey by ICM for the Guardian is the polling event of the month. The firm is widely regarded as “the gold standard”. The latest numbers just published see the LDs edging back up 2 to 15%, the…

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MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

MacShane, Dave’s big EU speech and the #Plebgate report

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Three dramatic headlines on the BBC’s main politics news page. bbc.co.uk/news/politics/ twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2013 The big political headlines this lunchtime Number 10 has been wise to waste no time in re-fixing Dave’s big EU speech which should have been given in the Netherlands on Friday. Unless the briefings have been very much off target we’ve got a fair idea already what’s in it – a promise for a post 2015 referendum after the completion of…

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Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

Henry G Manson on the argument over the TV debates

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Does Cameron fear Farage? David Cameron has argued that UKIP should effectively be excluded from televised leaders’ debates at the next election. His defence is “the TV debates should be about, you know, the parties that are going to form the government, in my view.” He really will have to do better than this. The Prime Minister gives the impression of defending a cosy cartel of parties (aided by first past the post) that is conspiring against the public. Worst…

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If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

If other pollsters follow YouGov with their EU referendum polling then it could change the whole nature of the debate

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An extended chart showing all YouGov EU referendum polling since last May’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 The bookies tighten the odds on a “remain” outcome Until this morning those pressing for an in/out EU referendum have been buoyed by their almost certain belief, supported by the polling, that the outcome would be a vote to leave All they had to do was to get agreement on a referendum and all would move their way…

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YouGov headlines: Stay in leads on referendum voting; Ukip drop to 4th in Euro 2014 voting; Ukip 7% Westminster share lowest level for months

YouGov headlines: Stay in leads on referendum voting; Ukip drop to 4th in Euro 2014 voting; Ukip 7% Westminster share lowest level for months

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Latest YouGov Westminster voting intentions – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 7%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 YouGov’s sensational 2014 Euro elections polling with comparisons on last week.See table twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 YouGov: staying in now has a 6% lead when people are asked how they would vote in an EU referendum.Last week leave was 7% ahead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 If YouGov is right there’ve been big…

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Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

Sunday Times reporting possible threat to Dave’s leadership

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Sun Times Dave speculation:Ladbrokes offer 3/1that Dave won’t be CON leader at gen election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2013 Sunday Times says “increasing number of CON MPs are privately discussing the possibility” of attempting to unseat Dave before the 2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 S Times quotinga” well-placed source” said that up to 17 MPs had now written letters of “no confidence” in Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 The Sunday…

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