Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

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Dave’s veto bounce with YouGov on 09/12/11. It happened at 0400 during fieldwork for Dec 8/9.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 Correctly there has been a lot of discussion over the timing of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov and I thought it useful to look at what happened on the night of the Cameron EU veto Dec 8/9 2011. Fieldwork for the poll began on the evening before as per usual and continued the following day….

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LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

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LAB lead 12% in first post Cameron EU speech daily poll CON 31(nc): LAB 43(+2): LD 11(-1):Ukip 10(nc). twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 We need to wait till weekend before getting proper picture If YouGov were following their usual pattern fieldwork would have started at 5pm on Tuesday evening and continued until 5pm yesterday. We do not know what proportion of the sample was before and afterwards and whether there was any difference in the response pattern….

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Miliband might regret ruling out a referendum

Miliband might regret ruling out a referendum

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Leaving himself without any wiggle room on having a referendum might be something that EdM comes to regret twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 For Labour not to have a clear line on a speech that has been 12,000 years in the making actually beggars belief. — Janan Ganesh (@JananGanesh) January 23, 2013 He should have left himself with some wiggle-room Having watched the exchange several times I think that EdM might not have been planning to make…

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In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

In a way Farage has won but his party could lose support

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Where does today’s Dave speech leave Farage? What about Ukip’s polling position? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 What happens to Ukip post-Dave speech? There can be little doubt that the rise of Ukip in the polls has played a big part in Dave’s referendum decision. The blue hope must be that some of those CON 2010 voters who’ve shifted will start to return. If that happens then Ukip could see a decline in its poll ratings. Is…

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The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

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Michael Ashcroft says the more they talk about EU the less likely the Tories have got of a Gen Elect victory twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 Is he right about the dangers for his party? This is from his blog – Lord Ashcroft polls:- “..As I found in my research published last month, Europe is not much of a priority even for those who say they might vote UKIP; the EU is just one of the (many)…

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Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

Time to close down those LAB majority betting positions

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Cameron’s offer an in/out referendum in 2017/18 could be the defining point of his premiership news.sky.com/story/1041580/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 The key factor is that the Tories will appear unified Whether the offer of an EU in/out referendum in 3-4 years becomes the policy that provides the platform for the Tories to win an overall majority I do not know but I believe today’s big speech will lead to a polling boost to the blues. The…

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With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

With just hours to go before Dave’s big EU speech the January Ipsos-MORI issues index puts concern about the EU at 6 percent

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Chart from Ipsos MORI showing long term trend in concern of voters about EU twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 22, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB