How the votes split in #Eastleigh in the May 2012 local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Thanks to Andrew Teale for this information.
Hills make the Tories 1/2 FAV to wn Eastleigh with LDs 6/4. Ukip 33/1 & LAB 100/1. bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Which one has got this right?
Huhne pleads guilty. If he’s jailed for a year he’ll lose his Eastleigh seat where LDs had maj of 3,864 at #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 The full Eastleigh result from May 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 But what about a resurgent Labour?
PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!) (Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!) The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP…
Baxter’s Electoral calculus has reduced from 85% to 82% the probability of a LAB MAJ in #GE2015. See pic twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 Full details can be found on his site here
Ladbrokes odds on many Tories will vote against/abstain on same sex marriage vote 2/1 0-150, 2/1 151-189, 6/4 181+ bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 And the latest polling on the issue YouGov finds strong support for same sex marriage – except with CON supporters twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013
Worrying story for LAB that party not picking up enough #GE2010 CON converts.m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 3, 2013 The red team is too reliant on non #GE2010 voters and LDs There’s some worrying news for Labour this morning from a Fabian society study of the make-up of Labour’s current polling standing. It finds that the total of CON>LAB switchers since May 2010 has been just 400,000 voters. The study found that about 1.4m of thoose currently…
This is the Gove story that’s moved the next cabinet exit betting. Did Gove know? .. m.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Is this really going to bring down the minister? Over the past few hours we’ve seen a lot of betting on Michael Gove being the next to leave the cabinet. This afternoon he was at 25/1. He then moved in to 8/1 and is now at 5/1. The devil is in the detail and Gove…