TONIGHT’S TOP TIP
Tonight’s top tip. If your spouse has taken some speeding points for you DON’T COMMIT ADULTERY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013
If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory
Grant Shapps tough comments about the #Eastleigh LDs seems to be the driver of big swing in betting towards CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 By-election to be held on Feb 28 The tough comments by CON chair, Grant Shapps/Michael Green, saying that Eastleigh voters had been let down by the lies of Lib Dems seem to have been the driver behind today’s betting which now sees the Tories odds-on with all the online firms apart from…
So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes
So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote? Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries. There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to…
If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent
Pie chart with today’s YouGov shares showing changes on the national GB figures from #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%. Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required. The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the…
What does the vote say about Tory MPs’ views of Dave?
Was the Gay Marriage vote a proxy for some CON MPs to show unhappiness with Cameron twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013
The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided
This must be the most worrying poll finding for the Tories at the moment. They appear divided. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 It has been said many times before that the one thing that is a big turn-off for voters is for a party to appear divided. This arguably has a much greater impact on electoral outcomes than a particular stance on a specific issue. So the big danger for the Tories in the same sex marriage…
The YouGov LAB lead over CON reaches a record high
Today’s LAB lead of 15% in YouGov daily poll is an all-time high for the firm. CON 30%: LAB 45% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 @a_c_mcgregor But which was the outlier?The sequence of LAB leads has been 6, 6, 9, 9, 12, 7, 15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 The full YouGov figures for today: CON 30%, LAB 45%, LD 11%, UKIP 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013
Farage is going to find it hard NOT being the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh
This surely must be one for the leader to lead On the face of it the Eastleigh by-election is ideal for Nigel Farage and Ukip. His party, one CCHQ official told me this afternoon, is probably better organised there than anywhere else in the UK. Back in May 2012 Ukip fielded candidates in every single seat in the council elections and achieved a vote share in double figures. On top of that there’s the local connection. Farage was a Ukip…