How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

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Latest prices from Ladbrokes on overall vote share for Ukip at #GE2015. For me the best bet is 6/4 5-10% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 But they’ll do far better in the non-battlegrounds Back at the 2010 general election Ukip achieved the ranking of eleventh in terms of seats (it got none) but fourth in terms of the overall national vote share. Then the total was 3.1% with the BNP’s on fourth place at 1.9%. Given the…

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A new Pope is elected

A new Pope is elected

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A new Pope is elected twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013 The new Pope was not amongst the betting favourites -see Oddschecker closing chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013

Sarah, the Twitter ban refusenik, is almost “party proof”

Sarah, the Twitter ban refusenik, is almost “party proof”

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Sarah Wollaston,MP for Totnes,was one of just 2 CON candidates in 2010 selected in a full open postal primary twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013 Open primary winners are less open to persuasion Of all the 650 MPs who were elected in May 2010 Sarah Wollaston was almost unique. For she became Tory candidate following an open primary in July 2009 in which every elector in Totnes, irrespective of their party allegiance, was sent a postal ballot. Other…

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This is starting to look a bit like November 1990 when Mrs. Thatcher was brought down

This is starting to look a bit like November 1990 when Mrs. Thatcher was brought down

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Suddenly the race to replace Dave as CON leader goes public as Gove lashes out at Theresa May Ladbrokes move Gove out to 10/1 as next CON leader while others make May the 4/1 FAV.gu.com/p/3ed4v/tw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013 Michael Gove rounds on ‘disloyal’ Theresa May in extraordinary Cabinet outburst. Home Sec refuses to respond. Full story in Mail tomorrow — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) March 12, 2013 How the Mail is reporting the Gove-May skirmish…

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Rod Crosby on “A POPE FOR OUR TIME?”

Rod Crosby on “A POPE FOR OUR TIME?”

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What’s the best betting on the Papal Election? Italian Angelo Scola is the betting favourite as the Cardinals go into the first round of the Papal election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2013 Electorate: 115 Total Europe: 60 (Italians: 28) Total “Developing World”: 40 USA: 11 Canada: 3 Oceania: 1 Winning-post: 77 For the ninth occasion in the past 100 years, all eyes turn to a makeshift chimney installed above one of the most beautiful buildings in the…

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The Ashcroft marginals poll said LAB majority of 84 – punters think that Miliband’s party will be 11 seats short

The Ashcroft marginals poll said LAB majority of 84 – punters think that Miliband’s party will be 11 seats short

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Ashcroft’s marginals poll had LAB maj of 84 & 17 LD MPs. Ladbrokes punters aren’t impressed. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2013   The Ladbrokes GE 2015 line betting set market was launched in January and offers punters each-way bets at evens on whether the parties will be above or below the stated thresholds. At stake will be 650 seats so, theoretically at least, a party needs 326 to be sure of a majority. However, taking into…

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Theresa May and Tim Farron first went head to head at GE1992

Theresa May and Tim Farron first went head to head at GE1992

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Could the two losing candidates from NW Durham at GE1992 end up leading their parties? See panel twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2013 A foretaste of a general election to come? Thanks to PB poster Tim at the weekend for spotting this one – the battle for the rock solid LAB seat of Durham NW at the 1992 general election. Who would have thought then that just over two decades later the two losing candidates, Theresa May and…

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LAB lead down 4 to 8 percent in the March ICM poll

LAB lead down 4 to 8 percent in the March ICM poll

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Piie chart of a tonight’s ICM poll showing changes on Mar 2012 when CON was 3% ahead & Ukip on just 1% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 11, 2013 And Ukip down 2 from 9% last month The March ICM poll is just out in the Guardian and shows better numbers for the Tories than last month but still way behind LAB. To put this poll in context in the firm’s survey a year ago, just before George Osborne’s…

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