The known unknown in this year’s local elections: Ukip contesting more than 70 percent of the seats

The known unknown in this year’s local elections: Ukip contesting more than 70 percent of the seats

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Ukip could beat the LDs on votes Each year the Rallings and Thrasher electoral analysis duo from the University of Plymouth set out their predictions for the May local elections. Much of it is based on their assessment of national vote from the local by-elections that we now monitor on PB every week. This’s year’s “unveiling” was due to take place at a special briefing organised by the Political Studies Association for Wednesday. That has been postponed because of the…

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If LAB in its key targets can hang onto most the 2010 LDs who have switched then Ed Miliband becomes PM

If LAB in its key targets can hang onto most the 2010 LDs who have switched then Ed Miliband becomes PM

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The Wikipedia chart showing UK opinion polls since GE2010. goo.gl/YLC01 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2013 Can Lynton Crosby do anything to change that? The next general election is actually very simple. It all comes down to whether LAB can hang on to the GE2010 LD voters who for two and a half years have been telling pollsters that they’ve switched. LAB doesn’t need to focus on many of them. The only ex-LDs that matter are in the…

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Reminder: Next PB gathering – Friday April 19th – Dirty Dicks

Reminder: Next PB gathering – Friday April 19th – Dirty Dicks

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As posted a couple of weeks ago the next PB gathering has been arranged for this coming Friday starting at 6.30pm at the historic Dirty Dicks pub in Bishopsgate – just across the road from the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. This is the first time that we’ve arranged an event for a Friday evening and I know that several PBers from around the country will be heading for London. The get together takes place at the back of…

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The response to the death of Mrs. Thatcher: Today’s YouGov verdicts

The response to the death of Mrs. Thatcher: Today’s YouGov verdicts

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Voting intentions: Hardly changed Update: Labour lead at 11 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 12th April – CON 31%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 11%; APP -35 y-g.co/16SdRuO — YouGov (@YouGov) April 14, 2013 Leader ratings: A small boost for EdM EdM sees 5% net increase in his YouGov approval ratings while Cameron sees 1% drop. Dave now – 24, Ed – 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2013 Cameron: Appropriate and dignified 28% say Cameron has tried to…

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ComRes finds just one in three saying that Maggie was “Britiain’s greatest peacetime PM”

ComRes finds just one in three saying that Maggie was “Britiain’s greatest peacetime PM”

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Voters disagree with Cameron’s description of Margaret Thatcher as “the greatest British peacetime prime minister” by 41 per cent to 33 per cent, according to a ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday, shared with the Sunday Mirror. And 60 per cent oppose taxpayer funding for next week’s funeral. The poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday this week, found little evidence of a “Thatcher effect” on voting intentions, putting LAB’s lead at eight points, down just one point since last month. UKIP…

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Where will the next Thatcher come from?

Where will the next Thatcher come from?

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How long before there’s another female PM? One of the measures of the significance of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership is that despite being Britain’s first – and so far only – female prime minister, that fact is largely incidental compared to the achievements and actions of her government.  Women heads of government were rare at the time.  She was only the fourth elected female PM (and two of the earlier three followed either their husband or father as head of government);…

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Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

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Harry Hayfield ahead of today’s BBC coverage Throughout Saturday BBC Parliament will be replaying the 1979 general election programme, as a build up to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher on Wednesday. The 1979 election is, to date, the only general election in modern electoral history (since 1950) to have been triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government and the polling (done by Gallup) makes for interesting reading for the Liberal Democrats. March 1977 saw the Labour government…

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Memories of Thatcher could make it harder for Tories to win in the North

Memories of Thatcher could make it harder for Tories to win in the North

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RT @rufusjones1: Margaret Thatcher’s Yeast Extract. twitter.com/rufusjones1/st… — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) April 12, 2013 Henry G Manson on the Mrs. Thatcher aftermath One of the Conservative Party’s secret weapons to winning more votes in the North of England is a young man called David Skelton. Skelton is from the North East and has an impeccable feel for the North in a way few Conservative strategists do. This was demonstrated in an article for Labour List last year explaining why Ed…

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