David Miliband’s departure leaves Blairites leaderless

David Miliband’s departure leaves Blairites leaderless

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Henry G Manson on the significance of today’s announcement It’s been said that New Labour was more of sect than a movement. Now shorn of a leader the moderate faction has no-one else to turn to. David Miliband’s defeat in the 2010 leadership election showed that New Labor could not easily endure beyond Blair. Instead David Miliband allowed himself to be presented as a continuity candidate when many in the movement and country wanted more of a change and break…

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Marf on the exit of David Miliband + latest South Shields betting

Marf on the exit of David Miliband + latest South Shields betting

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After a morning with a lot of betting moves the William Hill 1/20 is the best South Shields price for LAB. bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013   Best prices on Ukip in South Shields is the 16/1 available at Ladbokes (bit.ly/c5gpH6)and PaddyPower (bit.ly/I8PkIO) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013   The money on the S Shields by-election is going on Ukip beating the Tories. Ladbrokes have 8/11 on them coming 2nd with 5/4 for CON. —…

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Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

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The by-election could take place on May 2 when the CON will be defending twice as many local seats as LAB/LD combined twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013 Could it be like the CON 1993 disaster? To say that the Conservatives have been having a bad time of it lately would be an understatement. Since the PCC elections across the United Kingdom, if you are a Conservative candidate you have either lost the local by-election that you were…

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Daily Mirror: David Miliband to quit as an MP to take charity job in New York

Daily Mirror: David Miliband to quit as an MP to take charity job in New York

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This means a by-election in South Shields David Miliband’s South Shield seats looks rock solid. Ukp didn’t contest @ #GE2010. See result. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 @ #GE2010 South Shields had the 5th highest number of postal votes, 36.2%, in UK – suggesting super effective local LAB organisation. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 My guess is that Labour will try to hold by-election on May 2 – the day of the locals when UKIP’s…

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Marf on the Cyprus aftermath

Marf on the Cyprus aftermath

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And yet another Boris betting market PaddyPower now has a market on which constituency Boris will stand in at #GE2015 .bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013

Main points from the pre-Easter polling rush

Main points from the pre-Easter polling rush

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LDs move to highest YouGov level since 2010 Pie chart showing today’s YouGov with the LDs on 13% for the 1st time since the tuition fee row in Nov 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 The Two Eds struggle convincing even LAB voters on the economy Just 51% of LAB voters in today’s ComRes poll said they trust the 2 Eds to make the right decisions about the economy. 35% said they didn’t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

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Ukip up 5 & the LDs up 4 in tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy. See pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Ukip’s 14% is the highest ever for a phone survey With the Times deciding to get rid of its monthly Populus poll there are now only regular three telephone surveys each month – ICM for the Guardian, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard and this one – ComRes for the Independent. As can be scene…

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