Marf on the exit of David Miliband + latest South Shields betting

Marf on the exit of David Miliband + latest South Shields betting

Comments 0 Comment

After a morning with a lot of betting moves the William Hill 1/20 is the best South Shields price for LAB. bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013   Best prices on Ukip in South Shields is the 16/1 available at Ladbokes (bit.ly/c5gpH6)and PaddyPower (bit.ly/I8PkIO) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013   The money on the S Shields by-election is going on Ukip beating the Tories. Ladbrokes have 8/11 on them coming 2nd with 5/4 for CON. —…

Read More Read More

Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

Harry Hayfield reviews the battle of May 2nd – the locals

Comments 0 Comment

The by-election could take place on May 2 when the CON will be defending twice as many local seats as LAB/LD combined twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 27, 2013 Could it be like the CON 1993 disaster? To say that the Conservatives have been having a bad time of it lately would be an understatement. Since the PCC elections across the United Kingdom, if you are a Conservative candidate you have either lost the local by-election that you were…

Read More Read More

Daily Mirror: David Miliband to quit as an MP to take charity job in New York

Daily Mirror: David Miliband to quit as an MP to take charity job in New York

Comments 0 Comment

This means a by-election in South Shields David Miliband’s South Shield seats looks rock solid. Ukp didn’t contest @ #GE2010. See result. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 @ #GE2010 South Shields had the 5th highest number of postal votes, 36.2%, in UK – suggesting super effective local LAB organisation. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 My guess is that Labour will try to hold by-election on May 2 – the day of the locals when UKIP’s…

Read More Read More

Marf on the Cyprus aftermath

Marf on the Cyprus aftermath

Comments 0 Comment

And yet another Boris betting market PaddyPower now has a market on which constituency Boris will stand in at #GE2015 .bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013

Main points from the pre-Easter polling rush

Main points from the pre-Easter polling rush

Comments 0 Comment

LDs move to highest YouGov level since 2010 Pie chart showing today’s YouGov with the LDs on 13% for the 1st time since the tuition fee row in Nov 2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 26, 2013 The Two Eds struggle convincing even LAB voters on the economy Just 51% of LAB voters in today’s ComRes poll said they trust the 2 Eds to make the right decisions about the economy. 35% said they didn’t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

Read More Read More

Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

Comments 0 Comment

Ukip up 5 & the LDs up 4 in tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy. See pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Ukip’s 14% is the highest ever for a phone survey With the Times deciding to get rid of its monthly Populus poll there are now only regular three telephone surveys each month – ICM for the Guardian, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard and this one – ComRes for the Independent. As can be scene…

Read More Read More

My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs

My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs

Comments 0 Comment

What’s the current most popular #GE2015 Ukip bet is the 8/1 from William Hill that they’ll win 2+ MPs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Quite simply Ukip has a better than 11.1% chance of doing it Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests. Until now the view…

Read More Read More