UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

UKIP just 10 points behind the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll

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UKIP get to within 10 points of the Tories in new TNS-BMRB poll. see detail twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 Farage’s party now double the LD share It’s hard to know what to make of this afternoon’s poll from TNS-BMRB which has the most sensational polling figures of any survey since the general election. UKIP appear to be the main beneficiary from Tory’ woes as they pick up another 4% to rise to 16%. UKIP have now…

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The problem with the Tory gay marriage row is not the issue itself but the party appearing split

The problem with the Tory gay marriage row is not the issue itself but the party appearing split

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Powerful I front page lead on Tory splits over gay marriage independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2012 The polls seem to back Dave As the I and the Indy are reporting this morning there’s a schism growing within the Tory party over gay marriage – on which an announcement is expected this week. On the one hand a powerful grouping including Boris and Gove are getting behind the proposal while a traidtionalist faction is getting ready to…

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories

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How lower turnout in LAB seats is a big driver of the “electoral bias” against the Tories. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54684. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The above is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies last time. There is a difference –…

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Labour, like the Republican party, will struggle to win if it is still getting the blame

Labour, like the Republican party, will struggle to win if it is still getting the blame

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Look what happened in the US last month The #WH2012 exit poll data that should worry LAB. 4 years on Bush was getting the blame for the economy not Obama twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 The latest “blame” polling in the UK The latest polling shows LAB still struggling to shake off being blamed for the current spending cuts. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 9, 2012 Throughout Romney’s abortive bid to become President his…

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David Herdson asks: “What are the politics of a Credit Downgrade?”

David Herdson asks: “What are the politics of a Credit Downgrade?”

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How much does the UK’s Triple-A credit rating matter? The announcement earlier this week from Fitch – one of the three big credit ratings agencies – that the UK’s triple-A credit rating was only just consistent with the government debt levels projected in the Autumn Statement raises again the prospect that at some point soon, one or other of the will cut it. In one sense – the practical matter of borrowing money – such a move probably would make…

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Henry G Manson asks: “Is the Labour Party capable of Coalition?”

Henry G Manson asks: “Is the Labour Party capable of Coalition?”

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What if they fall short of a majority? It’s that time of the year again when Labour MPs wonder out loud how to approach the Liberal Democrats. What might seem irrelevant internal machinations can be revealing and have implications for 2015 in the case of a hung parliament. This week there has been a new grouping created, oddly called Labour for Democracy. It has little to directly do with democracy other than encourage the party to work with other ‘progressive’…

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Will voters buy the line that lower tax rates produce a higher yield? How long before the blues get back into the lead?

Will voters buy the line that lower tax rates produce a higher yield? How long before the blues get back into the lead?

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Can George convince us that lower tax rates produce a higher yield. Will the polls turn for the Tories? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2012 When will the Tories get back to their pre-March 2012 budget polling position with ICM – a 3% lead? Before June 30th 2013 Before December 31st 2013 Before June 30th 2014 Before December 31st 2014 Before May 7th 2015 Not until after the general election      For me the most signficant feature…

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