Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015 I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties. From…
A lot happened between Dec 1981 and June 1983 Whenever people raise the question of whether the Tories can win the next election I like to point to the above opinion poll by Gallup in December 1981. At the time the big story was the rise of the SDP and this poll took place shortly after Shirley Williams had had a spectacular victory in the Crosby by-election. The new party had the media narrative with it and quite a number…
Liversedge and Gomersal on Kirklees (Con Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 32, Con 18, Lib Dem 10, Green 5, Others 4 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 3) Ward Results in current electoral cycle Local Elections  2010 Local Elections  2011 Local Elections  2012 Party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 3,667 42% 2,467 47% 2,021 49% Labour 2,284 26% 2,189 42% 1,577 38% Liberal Democrats 1,548 18% 290 6%…
Suddenly it is all change at the top in the next CON leader betting By far the best Theresa May bet is the 16/1 from Hills that she’ll be next PM. I’ve just had a punt.bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 The Telegraph story that prompted the betting changes for next CON leader. goo.gl/eUePq twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 Theresa May 4/1 edges Boris 5/1 out of favourite slot for next CON leader. Hague, Hammond…
A ludicrous attack on the UK’s leading funder of polling @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne goo.gl/BTbKw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 To claim @lordashcroft has a “dangerous monopoly of political information” goes beyond hype telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… its evidently nonsense — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) June 12, 2013 Barmy slightly hysterical attack on @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne. Ashcroft a man who not only created wealth but kept Tory Party afloat — Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) June 12, 2013 When it comes…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, make some Changes, Tonight, be a Rebel Rebel, and start posting, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing in the Street once you start posting The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) I wonder if…
Balls ahead of Osbo on running nation’s finances The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out and sees very little change on a month ago. The firm’s UKIP share is 12% which is exactly what ICM had yesterday. In another finding Ed Balls is beating Osborne by 38% to 35% as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances. The leadership ratings The latest Ipsos-MORI leadership ratings with Farage down a bit but still the only…
New Statesman July 2012 Might the comprehensive school girl from Leeds make the cabinet? It’s being said that Dave is planning a reshuffle in July in what will probably be the last big shake-up before GE2015. For those Tory MPs elected in 2010 who aspire to high office this is a big moment and a key question will be whether any of them make it to the cabinet. Given that it is hard to see anyone getting such a promotion…