Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

Why to LAB strategists the fight with the Tories is their least important battle

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New Populus online poll has LAB lead up to 8 CON 31%(nc) LAB 39%(+1) LD 12%(-1) UKIP 10%(nc) Changes are on Monday's poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2013 In the red camp the most important objective is retaining 2010 LDs A couple of months ago I had an interesting dialogue with one of Labour top strategists who set out the four battlegrounds which they thought would decide GE2015. Surprisingly the least important to him was the fight with the Tories. The second didn’t…

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Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

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The Henry G Manson Friday column Ed Miliband’s decision to clamp down on the number of Labour MPs who have second jobs caused some surprise the other week. Following the 2015 general election no Labour MP will be able to work more than the value of 15% of their salary. Miliband called on other parties to follow suit. The way this story was reported suggested that if this policy was a stealth attack on the Conservative Party. But why? There…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: July 18th 2013

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  Connah’s Quay, Golftyn on Flintshire (Lab Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 31, Ind 23, Con 7, Lib Dem 7, Plaid 1 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 4) Ward Result: Lab 582 + 553 (75%), Ind 382 (25%) Flintshire (created out of the remains of Clwyd along with Denbighshire and Wrexham) has always been a strongly Labour area (even during the worse times for Labour). This was demonstrated at the 1983 general election when Alyn and Deeside (made…

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John Bercow’s replacement: Another betting market for mug punters

John Bercow’s replacement: Another betting market for mug punters

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PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m1KRSH open market on next Speaker Bercow is 50yo What if he stays till he's 70? pic.twitter.com/5uMPs3qmV5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2013 Who wants to lock their stake up for maybe 20 years? Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

The big picture is that Labour still has a majority winning lead and the Tories have yet to find the magic bullet

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Only EdM’s personal ratings should give LAB cause for concern It’s parliamentary recess time. The 2012-2013 political season is over only to return in early September and then into the conference season which for whatever reason kicks off a week earlier than usual. The final days have been accopmanied by a concentration of polling on a level that we usually only see at general election time. I’ve updated my current polling chart to feature all of them. The most signifcant…

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Night Hawks is now open

Night Hawks is now open

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  Home of the web’s best political conversation In the summertime when the weather is high, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not Delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)   Why Miliband’s dismal approval ratings should worry Labour PMQs review: Cameron sends the Tories away happy as he triumphs over Miliband How…

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Dave might not have been so upbeat at PMQs if this Ipsos-MORI poll had come out two hours earlier

Dave might not have been so upbeat at PMQs if this Ipsos-MORI poll had come out two hours earlier

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Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll with LAB lead up 7 to 11% pic.twitter.com/3NYnE3em7m — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2013 Last month it was CON 31, LAB 35, LD 10, UKIP 12 But the leader ratings see a big move to Dave Dave now doing better than Ed in the Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings pic.twitter.com/AFvjeMjhe4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 17, 2013 EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now as bad as Hague at the same stage of his leadership pic.twitter.com/GTWuvIV2fn…

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British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

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Lynton Crosby – the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Is his Oz template right for Britain? Whatever you might think of him the great contribution Oz campaigning “guru” Lynton Crosby has made to the current political scene has been to give the Tory party and particularly its MPs their confidence back. That is no mean feat. In recent weeks he is said to…

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