Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Is Ed Miliband heading for the same grisly fate as Gordon Brown? (Ed is also…
If Ed survives till the end of October he should be okay If (and it’s still a big if) Ed M leaves before election then Yvette will almost certainly take over. She’s been conspicuous by her silence this summer. Shocking really. If however Ed M disappoints at general election then Andy Burnham will also go for it and have a pretty decent chance as will Chuka Umunna. The trouble for Ed is that his team around him is so weak…
New ICM poll for Mirror ratchets up the pressure on EdM http://t.co/zzfiy4giAn Fewer than half LAB voters satisfied pic.twitter.com/vcwlNe8uEc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2013 Is his survival till GE2015 looking less likely? There some new polling from ICM for the LAB friendly Mirror, linked to in the Tweet above, that’s certain to add to party’s jitters even though the voting intention trend continues to be for Labour. Overall just 21% of those polled said they were satisfied with his…
The 1922 Committee chair, Graham Grady was on the World at One this lunchtime repeating one of the great myths about the formation of the coalition in May 2010. He said that he’d have preferred a minority CON government – but it is hard to see where there was a point when that was going to be possible. I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed…
Latest overall majority Betfair betting based on last trades. Price on CON maj now easing back pic.twitter.com/A8QezAwg4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 No overall majority remains the favourite Compared with the run up to previous general elections betting on GE2015 has been relatively light for one big reason – we know when the election will be taking place and punters are, rightly, less keen to lock their stakes up for more than eighteen months in advance. Just compare…
Is it really “the economy, stupid”? On Apr 8th 1997, 3 wks before Blair landslide, MORI had CON leading LAB by 45% to 23% on best "managing the economy" pic.twitter.com/KqTwKtWbae — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 Is having a lead on the economy a vote winner? See this from final ICM poll of GE1997 just before Blair's landslide pic.twitter.com/u3wSNZ8m79 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 6, 2013
After a week when Paxman's appearance was top political story 13 questions in S Times YouGov are about beards pic.twitter.com/XIuuYOl50B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 The choice of questions for the weekly Sunday Times YouGov poll is a good indication of what’s been going on in the previous week and today a large part of the poll is devoted to beards – sparked off by Jeremy Paxman. This is mid-August, after all, and the height of the silly…
Another poll that doesn’t fit the media narrative EdM has his worst ever good LAB leader ratings from ComRes but his net only 1% down on Cameron pic.twitter.com/tWIwcvnzoz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Dave is on a net minus 27% in ComRes good PM ratings – equalling his worst ever and only 1% better than EdM pic.twitter.com/DGsKVDFZiZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB