Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict

Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict

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Latest from Betfair GE2015 outcome market – prices based on last trades expressed as %ages pic.twitter.com/ZkwFFuPEsc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 25, 2013 Only a few hours before the first post-speech poll Within the next few hours we should get the first full voting intention poll to have been carried out entirely after EdM’s big Brighton speech. Let’s hope that the Sun releases its YouGov survey this side of midnight rather than us having to wait until the morning. On…

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Why EdM thinks he’s on to a winner with energy prices

Why EdM thinks he’s on to a winner with energy prices

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The YouGov polling that’s said to have been behind LAB’s move Thanks to James Plunkett of the Energy Foundation and George Eaton of the New Statesman for highlighting this. The party cross-tab on this are interesting. A total of 51% of CON voters rated household bills compared with 46% of LAB ones. Of the list presented the one that is applicable to most people is “household bills” which might have impacted on the outcome. UPDATE – More YouGov polling is…

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How will the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB react to the speech? If they remain Ed becomes PM

How will the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB react to the speech? If they remain Ed becomes PM

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At the 2010 general election 24% of those who turned out voted for the Lib Dems and, as we all know, a large number have since shifted or are now saying don’t know. The biggest segment, apart from those sticking with Clegg’s party, have gone to LAB – a move that happened in the first year of the coalition. According to today’s YouGov poll the proportion of all 2010 LDs in the sample now voting LAB is 28.4% This is…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. By the way, if you’re a lurker, why not step on the Otherside of PB and start posting. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Miliband mantra delights the Labour party faithful Miliband speech – instant reactions Ed Miliband speech: panel verdict The 5 key pledges…

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Amazing story coming out of the US about how a single trader sought to manipulate the Intrade Romney price at WH2012

Amazing story coming out of the US about how a single trader sought to manipulate the Intrade Romney price at WH2012

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"Trader lost millions apparently trying to manipulate Intrade data to favour Mitt Romney" http://t.co/8n11xSshu8 @MSmithsonPB — Gavin Jackson (@GavinHJackson) September 24, 2013 So this was why Betfair and Intrade were so far apart The big political betting this afternoon is not EdM’s speech but a report from the US about how a single trader sought to manipulate the Romney price on Intrade in the run-up to last November’s White House election. The divergence of the two markets was something that…

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Damian McBride says he doesn’t think his revelations will have any electoral impact. I think that he’s right

Damian McBride says he doesn’t think his revelations will have any electoral impact. I think that he’s right

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But it could have done just if published in April 2015 The biggest political impact of the McBride book and now TV interviews is that they will reduce media coverage of the current Labour conference. Some of the messages that EdM and his team were hoping to get across will be over-shadowed. That might depress the short-term polling impact that Labour could have expected from its conference but really that will be as far as it goes. One of the…

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Nighthawks is open

Nighthawks is open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not Step On to pb.com, and make it a Happy Monday by delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) On Europe, Angela Merkel’s election win may save Britain from itself - The German chancellor’s hat-trick puts her at the helm in…

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