Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

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The impact of different polling methodologies Both Populus and Survation operate in a very similar manner. Both do their fieldwork online, both weight for likely turnout, and both apply a formula to ensure that their samples are politically balanced. Survation uses past voting weighting comparing what respondents said they did at GE2015 and with the actual result. Populus asks “which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?” and compares back to the 2010 Social…

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Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

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The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…

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Good to see my 14-1 shot for the LD leadership back in action AND being political

Good to see my 14-1 shot for the LD leadership back in action AND being political

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Ex-energy secretary, Chris Huhne, says EdM's energy price cap is a bad idea pic.twitter.com/X4GW9s73jp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2013 The one person who has put up green taxes is George Osborne former energy secretary Chris Huhne tells @afneil #bbcsp — DailySunday Politics (@daily_politics) October 13, 2013 Huhne – the man who makes Osbo appear a political novice A long time ago when it appeared that Chris Huhne’s “little local difficulty” might not end in a criminal trial I…

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Polling blow for UKIP the betting favourite to win most votes at EP2014: Survation has them 13pc behind

Polling blow for UKIP the betting favourite to win most votes at EP2014: Survation has them 13pc behind

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Ever since UKIP strong performances in February’s Eastleigh by-election and the May local election there’s been an expectation that the party could top the polls in the May 2014 elections for the European Parliament. The purples were odds-on. They’ve now eased a bit but they remain the favourite. So this latest poll from Survation, the firm that in the past year has constantly given them the best Westminster shares,is going to come as a big disappointment. Farage & co have…

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With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

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This was the YouGov chart published last week on the Mail-Miliband spat pic.twitter.com/dIeRGc1hvA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Dicing with the Debt Ceiling could diminish Dollar dominance?

Dicing with the Debt Ceiling could diminish Dollar dominance?

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Playing with the reputation of the global reserve currency is a risk A quick quiz: who is the Chinese president?  If you can do that, name the Chinese prime minister and foreign secretary as well.  Tricky?  Very much so.  I’d be surprised if 5% of the population could correctly answer the first question and astonished if even 1% could get all three.  It’s really quite remarkable how little prominence is given to what is likely to be the world’s biggest…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk, you can even talk about whether England will be playing in the likes of Rio next summer, hopefully England’s world cup chances won’t crumble like the Carthaginians at Zama or Starfleet at Wolf 359 tonight.  If you have The Reflex not to post, ignore it tonight, you won’t become Notorious if…

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Will Osborne’s Help To Buy help buy votes?

Will Osborne’s Help To Buy help buy votes?

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Henry G Manson on George’s cabinet quip George Osborne is said to have quipped at a Cabinet meeting earlier this year ‘hopefully we will get a little housing boom and everyone will be happy as property values go up.’ Like Gordon Brown before him, Osborne is political to his fingertips and his dual role as general election co-ordinator explicitly reflected that. The policy seems to owe much more to the political tactician rather than the office of Chancellor. The £600,000 cap…

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