Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’ve had a Bad Day, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk this One Time, if in the past you’ve said you’d never delurk, I hope you remember that you should Never Say Never, Delurking isn’t All Bad. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)…
STAY draws level with LEAVE in new YouGov EU referendum poll For the first time since January YouGov’s “how would you vote in an EU referendum” polling has not had LEAVE in the lead. The latest figures, broken down by party supported are in the chart above. These splits are what you’d expect. Opinion seems to have moved quite sharply since the summer. In May it was LEAVE 47% to STAY 30%. An element that might be having an impact…
Polling turnout filters might be deceptive It has become standard practice almost all polling firms to include a weighting for turn out particularly in the final stages of a campaign. Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses. The most radical approach is taken by Ipsos-MORI which only includes the views of those 10/10 absolutely certain to vote…
ICM finds huge gender gap Among men LAB & CON tied on 32% each Amongst women LAB 45% CON 26%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 39% of those who voted LD at GE2010 tell ICM that now they are voting LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 In July the firm had CON & LAB level pegging Good Ed v Dave scores in ICM poll for Guardian just out http://t.co/Ax0GrjDkkn pic.twitter.com/Mo8tVSsS4U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 The…
Latest odds from PaddyPower http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T on the government after the next election pic.twitter.com/QKY6NtKrXz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2013 With another bookie I have another CON-LD coalition at 9/1 and I’ve got 12/1 that there’ll be another hung parliament but no coalition. In many ways I think that a LD-LAB coalition is less likely than a CON-LD one. I think that LAB would find it much harder to swallow going in with the yellows than Dave did in 2010. If…
The outcome could appear an abomination In the May 2013 local elections UKIP chalked up nearly twice as many votes as the Lib Dems yet won barely half the number of seats – a fact that attracted very little comment at the time. Given current polling and what is happening in local by-elections Farage’s party is not going away. It is continuing to poll in double figures even though only one pollster prompts for the party and several have weighting…
You can get 16/1 from Hills that Dimbleby will get tattooed this year See story http://t.co/dpCd2YpAMp pic.twitter.com/V5c6gytIO4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2013 Following DAVID DIMBLEBY's comments about tattoos William Hill offering that he'll do it 16/1 before end 2013 5/1 before end 2014 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2013 In a comment in the story Dimbleby says “The only person who will see my tattoo is the undertaker.†That’s all a bit morbid though Hills might accept an admission…
Update: Labour lead at 5 – Latest YouGov/Sunday Times results 8th Nov – Con 34%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 11%; APP -30 http://t.co/rJa0Q63eSh — YouGov (@YouGov) November 10, 2013 Today’s YouGov poll sees no change for either the Dave or Ed in the weekly well/badly ratings which many wrongly describe as approval ratings. On the specific issue of Ed Miliband’s handling of Falkirk 19‰ say he is doing well while 36% say badly. The biggest grouping, are, however, the…