A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and betting at 1-7 is crazy

A NO in the Scottish #IndyRef is not a certainty and betting at 1-7 is crazy

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Latest best odds Scottish #IndyRef pic.twitter.com/HESQaQuvia — PolPics (@PolPics) November 17, 2013 Keep hold of your money Over the past week there have been a number of reports from the bookies about punters placing four and five figure bets on NO in the IndyRef at prices as tight as 1/7. The thinking is that the outcome is now a certainty and that locking your cash up for ten months produces a return that is far in excess of what you…

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Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

Whatever the polls are saying the memory of GE1992 will give hope to the Tories right to the end

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Remember the election that was a total disaster for the pollsters It’s being reported that David Cameron is using John Major’s successful and surprise victory at GE1992 as a model for his party in seventeen months time. Whether the planned campaigning “double whammy” type tax shock approach will work we’ll have to wait and see but the result from April 1992 will give the blue team hopes of a majority right until the early hours of May 8th 2015. For…

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Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more than 23pc

Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more than 23pc

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This is looking like the Romney betting ahead of WH2012 What’s been one of the intensive weeks of polling since the last election has barely moved the betting markets where Tory chances of securing a majority are rated at more than 23%. The LAB price continues to be in the mid-30s even though current polls translated into seats could see them with a majority of 80+. A hung parliament remains the punters’ favourite at just on a 40% chance. The…

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Reminder – Next Dirty Dicks do, Next Wednesday Nov 20th 6.30 pm

Reminder – Next Dirty Dicks do, Next Wednesday Nov 20th 6.30 pm

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A once in a lifetime chance: Have a drink on SeanT The next PB gathering will be at the Dirty Dicks pub just across the road from Liverpool Street Station in London from 1830 on Wednesday November 20th. These have become very much a tradition and a good time is generally had by all. There’s an area at the back of the pub on the first floor that is semi-reserved for us. Please try to make it if you can….

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John Major is right: social mobility is the silent NIMBY

John Major is right: social mobility is the silent NIMBY

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pic.twitter.com/mI8RVHixt1 — Mike Smithson (@PolPics) November 16, 2013 And all the parties are complicit Around fifty years ago, the prime minister of the day confided in his PR advisor that “the period since 1832, in which the middle classes had dominated government and politics, was disappearing” and that “power was passing to organised labour”.  It was a surprisingly Marxist analysis to come from a Conservative PM but not untypically for a Marxist analysis, it was wrong. In some ways, Macmillan’s…

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Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour’s lead is increasing

Two more polls this morning add to the big picture – Labour’s lead is increasing

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Ipsos-MORI also reports Greens up from 4 to 7 Charts from Ipsos-MORI showing today's poll which has LAB lead of 6% – up from level pegging last month pic.twitter.com/Wk5AflwS5C — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 LAB’s position with Populus best since end July Today's online poll from Populus sees LAB lead up Lab 40 (+1) Cons 31 (=) LD 11 (=) UKIP 10 (=) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2013 All the leaders see their Ipsos-MORI ratings fall Table from Ipsos-MORI showing…

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November 14th 2013 Local By-Election Results

November 14th 2013 Local By-Election Results

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Seaton on Allerdale Labour 464 (40%), United Kingdom Independence Party 426 (37%), Conservative 133 (11%), Green 108 (9%), Liberal Democrat 30 (3%) Labour GAIN from Independent Labour GAIN overall control of Allerdale with an overall majority of 2 Winton East on Bournemouth Conservative 503 (42%), Labour 215 (18%), United Kingdom Independence Party 212 (18%), Liberal Democrat 191 (16%), Green 48 (4%), Independent 34 (3%) Conservative HOLD Seaton on Cumbria Labour 628 (47% +15%), United Kingdom Independence Party 483 (36% +11%),…

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