politicalbetting.com – Page 1409 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Local By-Elections Preview: December 5th 2013

5/12/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Riverside (Lab Defence) and Splott (Lab Defence) on Cardiff Result of last election (2012): Lab 46, Lib Dem 16, Con 7, Ind 3, Plaid 2, Heath Independents 1 (Labour overall majority of 17) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes Elected Riverside: Labour 1,731, 1,555, 1,431 (48%) Plaid Cymru 1,153, 944, 940 (31%) Greens 294, 272, 189 (8%) Conservatives 286, 276, 263 (8%) Liberal Democrats 142, 129, 122 (4%) Trade Unionists and Socialists 99 (1%) Candidates duly nominated:…

Read More Read More

Labour cannot go into GE2015 with Balls still shadow chancellor

5/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

Chris Leslie – Shadow Treasury Secretary pic.twitter.com/r5BkbT7KXm — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Could shadow treasury sec Chris Leslie be the answer? For me the striking feature of today’s autumn statement was how poorly Ed Balls performed. Yes he had to face a massive barrage of noise from the other side but his really poor communication skills were shown up. He’s just far too agressive and talks to fast. I know he’s got a stammer but he’s appalling diction –…

Read More Read More

If Osborne gets this right today could be the game-changer that gives the Tories hope again

5/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

pic.twitter.com/JgiJ5y5kP1 — PolPics (@PolPics) December 5, 2013 Or it could just go plop and not make an impact We all remember that speech by Osborne at the October 2007 Tory conference that arguably changed the whole narrative and stopped Gordon Brown from going ahead with an autumn general election. In it Osborne, then shadow chancellor, called for a big easing of the inheritance tax rules which seemed to chime with the voters. It forced the then LAB chancellor, Alistair Darling,…

Read More Read More

Nighthawks is now open

4/12/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation If you’re going to be up All Day and All of the Night, why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk? If you delurk,Â Ev’rybody’s Gonna Be Happy that you’ve delurked. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Liberal Democrats have accused Michael Gove’s department of “lying” and…

Read More Read More

An amazing statistic from the Survation Dudley North poll

4/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

None of the 2010 LD voters in the Survation Dudley N poll said they'd be backing party at GE2015. They're now "don't know" or LAB backers — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2013 Admittedly the sub-set of 2010 LDs, at just 11 responses, was very small but you’d expect one or two to still be loyal to the yellows. In fact the data records zero. That’s something I’ve never seen before for any party. It does support the view that…

Read More Read More

The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

4/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

How many will follow the Laura Sandys route? We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010â€œ on whether to continue in politics. For a consequence of the marginals and single constituency polling…

Read More Read More

Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

3/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010 After last week’s Thanet South poll there’s a second wave just out funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown and carried out by Survation. The picture that’s emerging is very similar to what the Ashcroft marginals poll found in September – that the Tories are faring worse in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals…

Read More Read More

NOTE – TO ACCESS MAIN SITE GO TO WWW.POLITICALBETTING.COM

3/12/2013 MikeSmithson Comments 0 Comment

URL change: To access the latest posts please click www.politicalbetting.com For three and a half years I have highlighted the YouGov “most to blame for the cuts” tracker as, perhaps, a good non-voting intention tracker. On the face of it you’d think that if the red team was continuing to get the blame with less than a year and a half to go then it would start to appear in the voting numbers. Yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….

Read More Read More