It’s time to make your predictions for 2014… It’s going to be a busy year ahead – the Euros, Scotland, and the world’s four biggest democracies all voting. Who’ll win the UK Euro-Elections, and will Scotland be on the road to independence by the end of the year? Will the coalition still be in place at Christmas? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for 2014. As before the competition is being hosted by…
Swinton South on Salford (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour overall majority of 44) Result of ward in last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 1,671, Lib Dem 1,358, Con 1,055, Ind 837 2011: Lab 1,356, Con 553, Green 481, Lib Dem 277, UKIP 194 2012: Lab 1,072, Green 394, Con 376, BNP 172, Lib Dem 141, Eng Dems 112, Community Action 86 Candidates duly nominated: Neil Blower (Lab), Anne Broomhead (Con), Steve Cullen…
One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…
Daily Mirror front page http://t.co/QOUhLchpah — PolPics (@PolPics) January 7, 2014 The juxtaposition with Osborne’s cuts announcement is unfortunate The Daily Mirror, which seems to be more comfortable with itself now Labour’s in opposition, makes the news about the MBE to the man who cuts Cameron’s hair it’s main story. The danger for the PM is that this could resonate because it touches on what’s perhaps his biggest negative in terms of the he’s perceived, that he doesn’t relate “to…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk? It’s Not Unusual to delurk, once you delurk, you won’t be able to Help Yourself from posting, soon PB will feel like The Green, Green Grass of Home. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Milibelievers are destroying Labour’s…
First day back after the hols & more GE2015 battlegrounds emerge I agree with Nick Clegg. It would be unjust to balance budget on backs of lower income, working aged people. Hope Tories will clarify soon. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Tory insiders say they'd be tougher on pension benefits if UKIP didn't exist. "We can't afford more core vote defections to Farage" I'm told — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Meanwhile UKIP leap ahead of LAB…
Electorally the Tories can’t upset the oldies The above table was produced by Ipsos-MORI and published shortly after the GE2010. It shows the demographic breakdown of how Britain voted. The key numbers are for the older age groups – the pensioners. Not only were they the most likely to turnout they were the most Tory. If you are facing an election sixteen months time you have to think very carefully before doing anything negative to your key voting group. Increasing…
How PBers got 2013 right and wrong Compared to the busy 2012, 2013 was a fairly quiet year, and not a great one for betting, as Our Genial Host has pointed out. There were just three UK by-elections, but of more significance was UKIP’s strong showing in the May locals. Abroad, Israel, Italy, Iran, Australia, and Germany were probably the most noteworthy elections. 2014 however looks set to be much livelier, with the Euros in May and the Scottish independence…