The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

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One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…

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Sometimes it can be the apparently trivial things that get traction

Sometimes it can be the apparently trivial things that get traction

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Daily Mirror front page http://t.co/QOUhLchpah — PolPics (@PolPics) January 7, 2014 The juxtaposition with Osborne’s cuts announcement is unfortunate The Daily Mirror, which seems to be more comfortable with itself now Labour’s in opposition, makes the news about the MBE to the man who cuts Cameron’s hair it’s main story. The danger for the PM is that this could resonate because it touches on what’s perhaps his biggest negative in terms of the he’s perceived, that he doesn’t relate “to…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To you lurkers, why not delurk? It’s Not Unusual to delurk, once you delurk, you won’t be able to Help Yourself from posting, soon PB will feel like The Green, Green Grass of Home. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Milibelievers are destroying Labour’s…

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Tim Montgomerie agrees with Nick Clegg on where cuts should fall

Tim Montgomerie agrees with Nick Clegg on where cuts should fall

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First day back after the hols & more GE2015 battlegrounds emerge I agree with Nick Clegg. It would be unjust to balance budget on backs of lower income, working aged people. Hope Tories will clarify soon. — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Tory insiders say they'd be tougher on pension benefits if UKIP didn't exist. "We can't afford more core vote defections to Farage" I'm told — Tim Montgomerie (@TimMontgomerie) January 6, 2014 Meanwhile UKIP leap ahead of LAB…

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The reason why there’s all the confusion over Cameron’s comments on pensioner benefits is in this table

The reason why there’s all the confusion over Cameron’s comments on pensioner benefits is in this table

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Electorally the Tories can’t upset the oldies The above table was produced by Ipsos-MORI and published shortly after the GE2010. It shows the demographic breakdown of how Britain voted. The key numbers are for the older age groups – the pensioners. Not only were they the most likely to turnout they were the most Tory. If you are facing an election sixteen months time you have to think very carefully before doing anything negative to your key voting group. Increasing…

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The PB 2013 Prediction Competition Results

The PB 2013 Prediction Competition Results

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How PBers got 2013 right and wrong Compared to the busy 2012, 2013 was a fairly quiet year, and not a great one for betting, as Our Genial Host has pointed out. There were just three UK by-elections, but of more significance was UKIP’s strong showing in the May locals. Abroad, Israel, Italy, Iran, Australia, and Germany were probably the most noteworthy elections. 2014 however looks set to be much livelier, with the Euros in May and the Scottish independence…

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Labour believes that Gove has become the Tories’ weakest link

Labour believes that Gove has become the Tories’ weakest link

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Observer front page lead http://t.co/EQ72wB7tlf — PolPics (@PolPics) January 5, 2014 Get ready for more attacks on him like the latest by Tristram Hunt Both Labour and Lib Dem strategists have told me in recent months that they now regard the education secretary, Michael Gove, as the Conservative party’s biggest electoral liability. The newly published YouGov polling showing Labour with a 41% lead amongst this voter group underlines the view that there’s a big benefit to be had in attacking…

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Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded

Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded

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The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago. Unlike the regular YouGov and Populus online polls Lord Ashcroft doesn’t use party ID weighting which tends to depress the UKIP voting numbers. To me it is striking that the 16% UKIP share is very close to tonight’s 17% share from…

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