Local By-Election Results : January 30th 2014

Local By-Election Results : January 30th 2014

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Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Result: Labour 548 votes (59% +6% on 2012) Conservative 350 votes (37% +12% on 2012) Liberal Democrat 41 (4% unchanged on 2012) Labour HOLD with a majority of 198 (22%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 3% Chadsmead on Lichfield (Con Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 206 votes  (36%), Labour 157 votes (27%) United Kingdom Independence Party 108 votes (19%) Conservative 102 votes (18%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 49 (9%) Buckie…

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Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

Why even this 4 percent lead on votes projection might not be enough for the Tories to win most seats

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http://t.co/be72pAqDpA pic.twitter.com/tHqRYZhs3t — PolPics (@PolPics) January 31, 2014 My 4/1 bet that LAB wins most seats but CON gets most votes Yesterday I placed a bet at 4/1 with PaddyPower that LAB will win most seats at GE2015 but will trail the Tories on national vote share. What makes this a value bet is because the vote share window when this could happen is much larger than the commons seat calculators suggest. Look at the uniform national projection above from…

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Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

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YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 30, 2014 That was almost the polling week that was We’ve now got to Friday in what has been a dramatic polling week and the chart above shows what’s happened to the five times a week YouGov “daily polls”. After three surveys which really looked as though Labour’s lead had narrowed we’ve now got Miliband’s party in…

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Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : January 30th 2014

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Heanor East on Amber Valley (Lab Defence) Result of last election for council (2012): Con 24, Lab 21 (Conservative overall majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2012): Lab 838 (53%), Con 391 (25%), BNP 284 (18%), Lib Dem 69 (4%) Candidates duly nominated: Steven Grainger (Con), Sheila Oakes (Lab), Kate Smith (Lib Dem) Chadsmead on Lichfield (Con Defence) Result of last election for council (2011): Con 46, Lab 10 (Conservative overall majority of 36) Result of ward…

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Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

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The latest YouGov/Sun daily poll, published last night, has LAB 38/CON 35/LD 10/UKIP 11 – so a continuation of what we’ve been seeing all week. For my chart above I’ve calculated a provisional weekly average based on the first 3 polls and as is clear there is a narrowing. The question is whether this is down to normal margin or error, which it could well be, or are we seeing real change? We should get another YouGov tonight and, of…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker,  why not take the final few Steps and delurk, it’ll be a Tragedy if at least 5,6,7,8 lurkers don’t delurk. I’m sure your contributions won’t be Better Best Forgotten. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) PMQs verdict: Ed resists the urge…

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Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

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On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind. Now I’ve had a chance to look at the detail and the above findings stand out – whether voters mght change their mind broken down by which party they supported in the 2011 Holyrood elections. On the voting question LAB voters from 2011 split 28% YES to 72%. LDs were…

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