The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

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Exactly 14 months to go & LAB leads jumps to 9..BUT.. LAB lead in YouGov Sun poll jumps 6 to 9% CON 31% LAB 40% LD 9% UKIP 13% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases. This is one of the reasons why…

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Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: March 6th 2014

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Wye on Ashford (Conservative Defence) Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 30, Independents 6, Labour 5, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 17) Last election in ward (2011): Conservative 392 (39%), Ashford Independent 318 (32%), Labour 112 (11%), United Kingdom Independence Party 97 (10%), Liberal Democrats 89 (9%). Conservative GAIN from Ashford Independent with a majority of 74 (7%) Candidates duly nominated: Ken Blanshard (Lib Dem), Ian Cooling (Con), Elaine Evans (UKIP), Dylan Jones (Lab), Geoff Meaden (Green), Noel Ovenden…

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UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

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A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party. That might indeed be true but were these Labour supporters in the first place? The chart above, from the Populus/FT aggregate data for February, shows computations that I’ve and as can be seen…

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New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

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This could have an impact on May 7th 2015 The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data. One I’ve been looking at overnight is the proportion of non-voters from last time amongst the current support bases. I went into this thinking that UKIP would have the most. In…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all your lurkers, All Around The World, why not delurk, Some Might Say, delurking is the best thing they’ve ever done. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) White face, blue collar, grey hair: the ‘left behind’ voters only Ukip understands. Farage’s core voters are not…

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So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My prediction: Both will be the winner

So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My prediction: Both will be the winner

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So the Farage – Clegg one to one is fixed for BBC 2 pic.twitter.com/7JJkHHcHPz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 This should liven up the Euros It’s good news for all who want a high turnout in the May Euro elections that the Farage versus Clegg national TV debate is actually on. The BBC will be staging it on BBC 2. It will last an hour. For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a…

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Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

Crossover on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market: LAB majority edges back to favourite for first time since June

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Last trade on LAB majority on Betfair = 40% Chances of LAB majority edges to 40% on Betfair for first time since June 2013 pic.twitter.com/Ty5AFGW6b8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Last trade on NO majority on Betfair = 39.3% No overall majority price on Betfair drops to 39.3% pic.twitter.com/Reo1fDv05f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2014 Punters could be buying the “voteless recovery” narrative The charts are from Betfair’s mobile site which annoyingly don’t show dates. The price…

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The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…

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