This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results

This week’s local By-Election: The detailed results

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Petersfield, Bell Hill on East Hampshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Conservative 190 (42% -15%), UKIP 110 (24%), Labour 75 (17% -2%), Liberal Democrats 74 (16% -8%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 80 (18%) on a swing of 20% from Conservative to United Kingdom Independence Party Petersfield, Butser on Hampshire (Conservative Defence) Result: Conservative 1,156 (37% -2%), UKIP 720 (23% +1%), Liberal Democrats 685 (22% +1%), Labour 322 (10% +1%), Green 220 (7% -2%). Conservative HOLD with a majority of 436…

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Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

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A reaction to Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum”? Today’s Populus online poll sees the LAB lead down to just 1%. The raw number show LAb still with a big lead but the weighted ones, after the demographic and certainty calculations, the Tory deficit comes right down. Now as I keep on saying it is wise not to equate correlation with causation. But the big thing that’s happened has been EdM’s EU referendum announcement, which was dominating the headlines at the…

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For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

For the first week in a very long time three different pollsters have the LDs in third and UKIP in fourth

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Results so far from latest by-elections see LDs doing well LD 2 gains CON 1 hold & 2 losses LAB 4 holds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2014 Labour lead back up to five points in YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 38% LD 11% UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 And the yellows main gainers in latest council by-elections It is clearly far too early to draw conclusions but in the week after the Elvis Bus Pass party debacle the LDs…

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Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014

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Heanor West on Amber Valley (Labour Defence) Result of last election (2012): Conservative 24, Labour 21 (Conservative majority of 3) Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 838 (56%), Conservative 381 (26%), British National Party 272 (18%). Labour GAIN from British National Party with a majority of 457 (30%). Candidates duly nominated: Mark Burrell (Con), Celia Cox (Lab), Philip Rose (UKIP), Kate Smith (Liberal Democrats) Barham Downs on Canterbury (Conservative Defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservative 36, Liberal…

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LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll

LAB lead down to just 3pc in the March Ipsos-MORI poll

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Some good news for the LDs on gettng credit for tax changes The @IpsosMORI chart that should bring some cheer to Clegg & co pic.twitter.com/MBBSJDnDhv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 @IpsosMORI finds Osborne leading Balls as the " most capable potential chancellor" by 38 to 33. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2014 Clegg sees most improvement in leader ratings Nick Clegg sees the most improvement in March @IpsosMORI leader ratings pic.twitter.com/uB6oyXkwLg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13,…

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Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead in the GE VI polls but trailed Hague’s CON by 8pts on the day

Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead in the GE VI polls but trailed Hague’s CON by 8pts on the day

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General election polls not good indicators for EP election What we mustn’t forget as we approach the May Euro elections is that this is not a national vote where LAB has prospered since the introduction of the party list voting system. The chart shows the CON deficit in the main Westminster polls from April 1999 and compares them with what happened a few weeks when the nation decided on who should represent it at the European parliament. The issue, of…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. To all your lurkers, why not Find The Time to delurk? I know your contributions will be Five Star good. Your preconceptions about delurking will All Fall Down. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) The Tory knives are out for Michael Gove – and Boris is…

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ICM poll: UKIP the least liked and most disliked party

ICM poll: UKIP the least liked and most disliked party

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In its latest poll ICM has introduced a new measure – party like/dislike ratings where interviewees are asked to rate each main party on a seven point scale. The outline figures can be seen above. Quite where this takes us I don’t know but the fact that LAB has fewer negatives is surely a positive. The UKIP numbers fit with what we’ve seen elsewhere, particularly in the ComRes favourability ratings. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble…

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