Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

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The Mail front page dominated by the budget pic.twitter.com/12d4hmPeqK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative. Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and…

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UKIP drop 3pc into third place in new YouGov EP2014 poll

UKIP drop 3pc into third place in new YouGov EP2014 poll

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Everything is dependent on turnout YouGov asked a likelihood to vote question which moved UKIP into second place and saw LAB up 2. This looks set to be low turnout election which presents a huge challenge for the pollsters. They might accurately reflect the pattern of support as is being told to them but everything depends on whether people actually do take the trouble to exercise their vote. YouGov found that 38% said they were certain to vote which was…

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Osbo’s pensioner saving measures could stop some of the seepage to UKIP but the Tories need to do much more than that

Osbo’s pensioner saving measures could stop some of the seepage to UKIP but the Tories need to do much more than that

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As has been pointed out many times before the segment of the electorate that has seen the biggest switch to UKIP is the one that the Tories always banked on – the oldies. Last month’s Populus aggregate found that the current UKIP support base has those aged 55+ accounting, as the chart shows, for nearly 60%. The biggest group of switchers based on past vote were 2010 Conservatives who now make up 45% of the UKIP support base. Oldies are…

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As Osborne starts his 5th budget Betfair punters rate CON majority chances at 20.8 pc and most seats at 41.7

As Osborne starts his 5th budget Betfair punters rate CON majority chances at 20.8 pc and most seats at 41.7

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Will today’s announcements help CON get any closer? With just over a year to go before the general election today’s budget is key to Tory chances. This morning’s news on employment and the general better economic pointers. These, though, have yet to work themselves through in the polling. Political gamblers are taking a more bullish view of the party’s chances as can be seen from the latest trade data, featured in the chart above, from Betfair. I’m putting up this…

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Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour tie? How many sips of water? etc

Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour tie? How many sips of water? etc

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Sporting Index budget spread markets SportingIndex http://t.co/U2fOqryMuA budget spread betting pic.twitter.com/DvU3YWbYIi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 William Hill Some of the Budget betting specials from William Hill http://t.co/3DhorKEjnt pic.twitter.com/97abVvpwYz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 Ladbrokes Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K budget buzzword bingo pic.twitter.com/ppnX98eJ4z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014 PaddyPower The PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P first budget cliche betting odds pic.twitter.com/CDwdfwvTfn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 19, 2014

Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not change the Status Quo,and become a poster. Don’t worry, delurking won’t lead you to the Wild Side of Life, after your first post, you’ll want to post Again and Again. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Budget 2014: the…

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George Osborne moves into the favourite slot at Betfair to succeed Cameron as CON leader

George Osborne moves into the favourite slot at Betfair to succeed Cameron as CON leader

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Betfair boost for Osborne ahead of budget Based on last trades punters make him favourite for next CON leader pic.twitter.com/TvpMG9rx0U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 18, 2014 Not convinced – I still reckon Hamond Above are the latest trades on Betfair’s Next CON leader market and as can be seen there is a new favourite – George Osborne. This has probably come out of the recent Michael Gove initiatives which are seen by many as a way of undermining Boris. Trading…

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On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

On the eve of the budget a Survation poll restricted to those in employment has LAB lead of 17 percent

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There’s a new Survation poll out this morning where the sample is restricted to those in employment either full-time or part-time. It was commissioned by Unions 21 but the target sample was all those working not just union members. There is nothing to compare this with in the past so it is hard to say whether there is a trend or not. Of those sampled 73% said they’d seen wages fall relative to the cost of living in last 2…

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