A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events

A timely reminder from Populus of how little most people follow political events

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Case study this week’s Budget Great info from @PopulusPolls on what people recall was in the budget pic.twitter.com/MHD11Jq7xq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 I like this chart because it reinforces a point that I make a lot – that most voters pay little attention to politics even big events like this week’s budget. There was wall-to-wall TV coverage on the day followed by extensive reports and analysis in the bulletins. In the Thursday papers seven of the nationals splashed…

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Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

Don’t bet on a Tory Euro-win unless you expect a Blue landslide in 2015

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EP2014 betting pic.twitter.com/J0flbsW18s — PolPics (@PolPics) March 21, 2014 Governments rarely win interim elections William Hague was not a very successful leader of the opposition.  Against Blair’s prolonged political honeymoon, Hague’s Conservatives were regularly so far behind in the polls as to be out of sight.  Not only did they fail to gain a single seat during the parliament but they actually went backwards, losing Romsey to the Lib Dems. However, in the midst of that constant popular battering, he…

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Local By-Election Results: March 20th 2014

Local By-Election Results: March 20th 2014

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Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence) Result: Lib Dem 482 (48%), Con 341 (34%), UKIP 112 (11%), Lab 63 (6%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 141 (14%) Gamston on Rushcliffe (Conservative defence) Result: Con 444 (44%), Lab 218 (22%), UKIP 173 (17%), Lib Dem 170 (17%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 226 (22%) Turnout: 26% Cellarhead on Staffordshire, Moorlands (Staffordshire Independent defence) Result: Con 175 (32%), Lab 132 (24%), Staffs Ind 119 (22%), UKIP 105 (19%), Lib…

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The way opinion is moving in Scotland the value IndyRef bet is now on YES

The way opinion is moving in Scotland the value IndyRef bet is now on YES

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The betting seems to be lagging behind the polls This morning I made my first serious Scottish IndyRef bets and my money went on YES. This is not a prediction but my assessment of how I think the betting will move in the coming weeks and months. There has been a clear tightening in the polls and if this continues I can see the YES price moving in with NO moving out. The prices, seen in the chart, are quite…

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YouGov finds 66 percent backing Osborne’s budget but LAB’s 5pc lead remains

YouGov finds 66 percent backing Osborne’s budget but LAB’s 5pc lead remains

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Times fromt page story on polling reaction to the budget pic.twitter.com/tvFnasDwtE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2014 Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, the first to be carried out wholly after the budget has CON 34 LAB 39 LD 10 UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Voters might have already made their minds up about GE2015 and there’ll be little shifting As can be seen from the Times front page the first Budget polling by YouGov finds strong support from voters for the…

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Local By-Election Preview: March 20th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: March 20th 2014

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Wroxham on Broadland (Liberal Democrat defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 21) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 985, 829 Conservatives 741, 537 Labour 227 Greens 197 Candidates duly nominated: Alex Cassam (Lib Dem), Malcolm Kemp (Lab), David Moreland (UKIP), Fran Whymark (Con) Gamston on Rushcliffe (Conservative defence) Result of last election (2011): Conservatives 34, Liberal Democrats 6, Labour 5, Independents 3, Green 2…

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The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

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The CON bingo poster came from party chairman Grant Shapps See this from his Twitter page pic.twitter.com/ekOCIBa3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Both resonate because they reinforce perceptions We all remember the famous Liam Byrne hand-over note in May 2010 telling his successor at the Treasury that there’s no money left. That struck home because it touched a widespread view of the LAB approach to public spending. The Grant Shapps Tweet poster is damaging because it touches directly on…

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Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

Osborne’s budget is a narrative changer that could have the same effect on the polls as his October 2007 move on IHT

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The Mail front page dominated by the budget pic.twitter.com/12d4hmPeqK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Time to be putting more money on the blues winning the Euros Downing Street will be delighted with the coverage that Osborne’s budget is getting in the papers this morning and my view is that we could start to see a change in the media narrative. Suddenly the pressure that the savings changes put on the UKIP switchers will be become the story and…

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