Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

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It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015. In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite. From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th…

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If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

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How the budget moves fit with the overall trend Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International. Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen? Clearly the daily ratings can…

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LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

LAB lead down but Tories trail by 5 percent in first phone poll since the budget

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At last for LAB a poll with a lead bigger than 1 After three online pollsters had reported LAB leads down to just one percent there’ll perhaps be some relief at Miliband HQ that tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the margin down to 5% But the trend is the same. In February the gap was 8%. Asked which of the two biggest parties was most likely to keep the economy growing, 47% say CON and 36% LAB….

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The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

The political role of the purples: As a stalking horse

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Corporeal on UKIP It’s reasonably common, in these cynical times that we live in, to hear someone dismissively remark that politicians are mainly interested in power. It’s a comment that is both often true and also the basic point of politicians. Politics itself is essentially the exercise of power in society in all its various shapes and forms and the proper use of that power is what politicians are fundamentally contesting. It is less a question of how the world…

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Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

Even with poll leads there are still two massive hurdles for the Tories: LAB’s inherent electoral advantage and LD stickiness

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Far more CON votes are wasted where it doesn’t matter The “boundaries” has become a misleading shorthand to describe the challenge the Tories face with the way the general election electoral system operates under first past the post. The above three part interactive chart presents different elements where LAB has an inbuilt advantage. Firstly, from the GE2010 outcome we see that a much higher proportion of the blue vote gets wasted in seats won by 3rd parties Secondly we see…

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The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015

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There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary. My old Oxford colleague and leading Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, is arguing the case for Cable while others in the party say it should be Alexander. The latter are right for four main reasons:- First the yellows…

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Politicalbetting.com: Ten years old today and still going strong

Politicalbetting.com: Ten years old today and still going strong

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Thank you for your continued support It was on March 23rd 2004 that PB began – ten years ago today and I thought that this should be something that we should mark and celebrate. It began simply because I like talking about and making forecasts on electoral outcomes and I wanted a platform where I can could engage with like minded people. My son, Robert, was the catalyst and he’s played a huge part over the past decade handling the…

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UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

UPDATED: Both YouGov and Survation report that CON almost closing the gap

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Sunday Times pic.twitter.com/otaZJZGfbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 22, 2014 Survation finds CON now 2nd place for Euro Elections UPDATE: UKIP slip to 3rd place in Survation Euro2014 poll Not quite cross-over but nearly there Tonight’s Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday provides a massive boost for the Tories following the budget. The pollster, which pioneered prompting for Farage’s party, has traditionally had the biggest shares for UKIP. That’s down 3 to 15% while the Tories jump 4. The…

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