The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…

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From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost

From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost

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The voting detail from latest ComRes phone poll that will be released tonight pic.twitter.com/jHNx9bg3Zk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2014 This looks like CON 29/LAB 37/LD 10/UKIP 11 Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers. What we do have is part of the data which…

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The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

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2010 LD to LAB switching 2010 CON to UKIP switching Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election. The pie charts above say it all. At the last general election the Lib Dem secured 24% of the overall GB vote while…

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LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

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LAB lead moves to 9% in tonight's YouGov poll CON 32 LAB 41 LD 8 UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Tonight's 41% LAB share from YouGov is the highest of the year — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 The Scottish polling headlines Ipsos-MORI trend chart showing gap getting larger in #IndyRef polling pic.twitter.com/boOJ2xzTVz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Scottish #IndyRef YES still struggling to win over women. See chart from Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/G8oCJYx2AA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

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Good chart from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/feJQJBE8NT showing polling trends since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/dDS86kDbSi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election. The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still…

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Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

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Where PB goes others follow At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000. The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly…

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Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

Why May’s Euro elections could be more challenging for UKIP than 2004 or 2009

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Much greater scrutiny Expect to see more attacks on UKIP like this in the 11 weeks remaining pic.twitter.com/4AyroUsc1S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 The purples still waiting for their Paul Sykes donation Observer http://t.co/utBXQ83odK has most interesting UKIP #EP2014 campaign story Top donor not handed money over yet pic.twitter.com/l6gFN3AbZk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014

Reconsidering the case for George Osborne as next Tory leader

Reconsidering the case for George Osborne as next Tory leader

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The fury of Boris over Osborne – the story that dominates Mail on Sunday front page pic.twitter.com/WTo5vm3731 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 2, 2014 You can get a bet on him at 15/1 Until now I’ve always discounted George Osborne as Cameron’s successor. He generally polls badly and has nothing of the charisma or presence of a Boris or a Dave. Yet the message from the reported flare-up between the Chancellor and the Mayor is that Osborne wants it badly…

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