Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

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Benedict Brogan wrote the other day David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office. That much is understood in Downing Street, where a gnawing doubt about the referendum gets worse by the day. The vote takes place in five months this Friday. Angst rather than panic describes the feeling apparent among those involved – but is it…

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European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

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European Election Results 2009 Conservatives 4,193,706 votes (27.63%) winning 272 count areas and 25 MEP’s United Kingdom Independence Party 2,495,782 votes (16.44%) winning 9 count areas and 13 MEP’s Labour 2,375,361 votes (15.65%) winning 59 count areas and 13 MEP’s Liberal Democrats 2,078,723 votes (13.70%) winning 11 count areas and 11 MEP’s Green Party 1,302,705 votes (8.58%) winning 3 count areas and 2 MEP’s British National Party 941,491 votes (6.20%) winning 0 count areas and 2 MEP’s Scottish National Party…

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Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

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Polling this parliament PB Thread Are we reaching a tipping point for Clegg's leadership http://t.co/pJaMJualu0 pic.twitter.com/7GYQQtHecA — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2014 One of the constants in this parliament is each May, in the local elections, the Lib Dems lose a significant number of councillors and the Lib Dems insouciance to it all. With other parties, it may have triggered speculation about the Leader/a Leadership election. The Lib Dems motto seems to be “Keep Calm and Carry On” I suspect this…

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CON might have big leads with all voters on best PM and the economy but it’s a different picture with the key swing group

CON might have big leads with all voters on best PM and the economy but it’s a different picture with the key swing group

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The 2010 LDs now saying LAB are Ed’s most enthusiastic backers The two big reasons, it is argued, why Labour should not put place too much confidence in current poll ratings are Ed’s personal poll numbers in relation to Dave and the ongoing Tory lead on the economy. No party, it is said, has ever won power when it is behind on both. That might be the case though there are very few data points and modern polling is very…

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The LDs slump to just 6 pc in Euros survey from pollster that traditionally gives them the highest shares

The LDs slump to just 6 pc in Euros survey from pollster that traditionally gives them the highest shares

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Tories drop 3 in latest ICM Westminster poll Tonight's ICM phone poll for Guardian has CON 32-3 LAB 37 LD 12 UKIP 11 CON share worst from ICM since last summer — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 Clegg’s Farage debate gamble looks like a failure For me ICM IS the gold standard and I regard its monthly survey for the Guardian as the most important polling event of the month. ICM is also the firm that traditionally reports the best shares for the…

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Punters unmoved by Jeremey Browne’s reported desire to succeed Clegg

Punters unmoved by Jeremey Browne’s reported desire to succeed Clegg

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PaddyPower PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P next Lib Dem leader betting odds pic.twitter.com/63RdopWkRZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 Ladbrokes Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnr30K next Lib Dem leader betting odds. pic.twitter.com/Iln3Ek377Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014 William Hill Latest next LD leader betting odds from William Hill. Danny Alexander might be worth a punt pic.twitter.com/YgwUFfaW5Q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 14, 2014

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

Introducing a new tracker: the 2010 LD switchers to LAB – the voters who form Labour’s “crutch”

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What’s the trend? Is this key group getting smaller or larger? On Friday there was a lot of discussion on the thread about the detail from the latest Populus online poll which seemed to point to a big reduction in the proportion of 2010 LDs who are now saying they’ll vote LAB. Was this this just a sampling issue or were we seeing a trend that could change our whole view of the GE2015 outcome? Well this was a subset…

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