Fracking backers have a long way to go in battle for public opinion
Wind continues to enjoy strong support even from CON & UKIP voters It is important to note that this YouGov poll was a private one commissioned by Ecotricity.
David Herdson says the electoral battlefield has never favoured LAB so strongly
Is 35% Labour’s new bedrock support? It’s better to be lucky than to be good, so the saying goes – and in politics, success or failure frequently turns on the timing of events over which those involved have little or no control: their luck, in effect. What they make of that luck is a different matter. To that end, the Lib Dems going into coalition with the Conservatives delivered Ed Miliband a very great slice of luck. Not only did…
In 1974 British politics moved from a 2-party system to a 3-party one: GE2015 might hearld the start of 4-party politics
Just look at the chart above showing the aggregate CON+LAB vote in all general elections since 1950. GE2010 saw the big two share down to its lowest level. Now with the emergence of UKIP it could edge down even more. What this means is that it is possible for a party to win a general election with little more than a third of the GB vote. At GE2005 Tony Blair’s Labour came home with a 60+ majority on just 36.2%…
GE2015 becomes even more like Premiership football where the top teams rely on highly-paid foreigners
Welcome to Axelrod versus Crosby The Guardian front page with news of Labour's appointment of Axelrod to advise on party's GE2015 campaign pic.twitter.com/NLeJSbT9vb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2014 How much can Ed’s new hire bring that’s relevant to the UK? There’s no doubt that the overnight news on Labour’s Axelrod appointment will cheer the party faithful but I just wonder what Axelrod will be able to bring. Axelrod’s great strength is that he’s good at messaging but he’ll…
The Euro elections are being totally overshadowed by Scotland and that could have an impact on May 22nd
Maybe it is because I’m on my way home from Edinburgh after being immersed totally in Scottish politics for two days but I am convinced that the immensity of what will be decided on September 18 is overshadowing everything. The very idea that the Union that has been in place since 1707 might come to an end is what everybody is focusing on to the exclusion of almost everything else in current politics. This means, for starters, that the Euro…
The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros
Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…
Corporeal asks: Will the dog bark
Sex and politics is an explosive mix and one that has driven a lot of scandals in British history, from Parnell’s divorce through the Profumo affair, Jeremy Thorpe, and up to the present day scandals to not even scratch the surface. The most recent rumours (that I happily don’t know enough about to make any troublesome innocent faces) aren’t either as influential or as shocking (the Duchess of Argyll’s divorce case is inexplicably obscure now) as the most infamous historical…
Betting on the number of Lib Dem MEPs
New PB Thread on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros http://t.co/ZHM2lWolM5 pic.twitter.com/hioJ9rUC0t — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2014 Ladbrokes have a market on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros. If we apply UNS to the ICM poll for the Guardian, they will end up with zero MEPs. Now this election is conducted in regions under the d’Hondt  method so a straight UNS calculation may not be apt. That said, the…