The ComRes/Channel 4 focus group of 2010 LD>LAB switchers The first post-holiday weekend Populus poll has very little change though the LAB lead moves from 1% to 3% – all within the margin of error. LAB 36 +1, CON 33 -1, LD 10 +1, UKIP 13 -1. The poll also shows that 33% of 2010 LDs who voiced a voting intention said they had switched to LAB. Amongst all 2010 LDs, including don’t knows and wont’t votes, the proportion was…
In the next couple of weeks postal vote packs for the May 22 Euro Election will be going out to those electors who have registered to cast their votes in this way. The chart shows how significant this form of voting has become. Back at the 2004 Euro Elections an experiment took place in four regions of England of all postal voting. These were the North East, North West, Yorkshire and the East Midlands. This certainly encouraged overall turnout. In…
How UKIP is handling the immigration issue it its campaign posters. pic.twitter.com/YKYQ7UfJBB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 Another of UKIP's Euro 2014 campaign election posters. pic.twitter.com/83mtwiLb39 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 And the parodies have already started The UKIP ads – now the inevitable parodies start pic.twitter.com/DEklLwe57F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2014 So far, at least betting interest has been minimal Four and a half weeks to go now till the national election that could…
Following the weekend’s ICM Scottish poll people have begun to look more closely at what the impact in a general election might be if the 59 Scottish MPs were removed. Clearly GE2015 will take place as planned but the above chart has been produced to make a general point – LAB would find it harder to win general elections without Scotland but this can be overestimated. The table above sets out key numbers. The House of Commons based on the…
Daily Mail chooses Easter Sunday to attack Christians for feeding the poor. #WWJD pic.twitter.com/ow3PvM28Vk — Billy Bragg (@billybragg) April 20, 2014 A mistake or great investigative journalism?
How Scotland on Sunday is reporting its #IndyRef poll with the NO lead down to just 3% pic.twitter.com/uWy8j1WaEO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2014 Excuding DKs/WNVs it is YES 48: NO 52 A dramatic new poll by ICM for Scotland on Sunday has the gap down to just 3% – the lowest ever from an established national pollster. The numbers say it all. YES is stable on 39% but there has been a four point reduction in those saying…
If Survation for the MoS is right the LDs set to lose Eastleigh You can get UKIP at 4/1 from Ladbrokes in Eastleigh which seems like a good bet. I’ve long said the Eastleigh was UKIP’s best hope because of its performance in the February 2013 by-election. This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset….
The first of tonight’s very interesting crop of polls is out and, as can be seen, UKIP is only 3% behind LAB in the ICM online Euro elections poll. This is a very different picture from the ICM phone poll reported earlier in the week which had UKIP in third place. For whatever reason the purples are doing better when the fieldwork is carried out online. There are several more very newsworthy polls expected in the next few hours. Mike…