New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

New culture secretary Sajid Javid now 33-1 for next CON leader

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Sajid Javid seems to get his breaks replacing CON women caught up in expenses rows. At GE2010 he took over Bromsgrove from Julie Kirkbride — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 The first of the CON 2010 intake into the cabinet What a morning and it’s quite hard keeping up with developments. There’s no doubt that ex-banker, Sajid Javid, is one of the most able CON MPs to be elected at GE2010 but the big surprise is the Cameron has…

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The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

The Miller expenses case has touched a raw nerve that neither she nor Cameron anticipated

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Four out of five Tory members believe that Maria Miller should quit the Cabinet http://t.co/n4ACVYftk0 — ConservativeHome (@ConHome) April 8, 2014 Three times as many told YouGov that Gove (27%) & Clegg (28%) should "remain in role" as Maria Miller (9%) http://t.co/nlfuerftm2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 9, 2014 At today’s PMQs Cameron will face one of the 2009 “Expenses’ Saints” In 2009 the Telegraph classified EdM as one of "The Expenses' Saints" http://t.co/9CQ46kY2Xr Most frugal in cabinet pic.twitter.com/kulVAnvKV2 — Mike…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk Tonight, as delurking will make you Smile. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A note of caution about resignation polls: while 62% of voters think Maria Miller should stand down, 52% think the same of Nick Clegg, 47% of Michael Gove and 46%…

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If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

If LAB does come top in the Euros then EdM should send a thank you note to Tony Blair

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58% of the electorate will have local elections as well on May 22 In all the time that Tony Blair led the LAB party there was only one set of national elections where victory eluded him – the 1999 and 2004 contests for the European Parliament. He didn’t like that in the least and ahead of the 2004 contest he went to extraordinary lengths to win. First he changed what had been the standard practice and decided to put back…

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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

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In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re wanting some Happy Mondays, why not relax and spend the night on PB Nighthawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk and Step On to PB as a poster. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Can Farage convert short-term popularity into long-term gains? Most supporters of the UK Independence party say they will stay with the anti-EU party…

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The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

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Betfair #IndyRef YES price moves to 24.4% chance – the highest level yet pic.twitter.com/oTG7n9E0zq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2014 YES remains the value bet There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter. When I recomended three weeks ago that YES was the value bet the price on Betfair represented an 18% chance….

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CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging

CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging

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The Tory vote will be boosted by UKIP returners and fewer 2010 CON don’t knows At the end of last week Ladbrokes put up a GE2015 market on whether the Tories could come out with most votes but be behind on seats. The price when I got on at was 8/1 which seemed a good value bet. I am increasingly coming to the view that this might happen. As we get closer to May 7th 2015, election day, I think…

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