The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.

The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.

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Lord Ashcroft’s has published his marginal polling. The poll contradicts the findings of the ComRes marginals published earlier on this week, and the sample size here is nearly 26 times larger than the ComRes poll. This polling finds a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. 26,025 people were contacted by phone between 31st of March and the 18th of May. Given the collapsing leads and occasional…

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Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

Election 2014: A 3-act drama and the plot’s bubbling nicely

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The local elections suggest something really historic in the Euros The last time any party other than Labour or the Conservatives won a UK-wide election, women didn’t have the vote, the future RMS Titanic was still under construction and the Ottoman Empire stretched to the shores of the Adriatic.  That 103-year long shut-out will probably end this week. Before looking forward, however, a brief look back.  The local elections have not been a spectacular success or failure for any party. …

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As most of the results are now in, the papers begin to give their take

As most of the results are now in, the papers begin to give their take

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Local results so far pic.twitter.com/HTCpa3cThj — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 INDEPENDENT FRONT PAGE: 'Farage crashes the parties' #skypapers pic.twitter.com/3h9VDpFcET — Sky News (@SkyNews) May 23, 2014 TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: 'Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis.' #skypapers pic.twitter.com/FpQ8MzaJ38 — Sky News (@SkyNews) May 23, 2014 Guardian front page, Saturday 24 May 2014: Miliband told: raise your game pic.twitter.com/rqG0mUYpbD — Guardian news (@guardiannews) May 23, 2014 TSE

Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC

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BBC announces that Provisional National Vote share in yesterday's locals was Con 29 Lab 31 LD 13 UKIP 17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 The trend in BBC National Vote share based on the May locals. Ukip down 6% on last year. pic.twitter.com/caD3KO0OzW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 CORRECTION. The decline in Ukip's Projected National Share yesterday was SIX down on 2013 and not 4 as I previously Tweeted. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014 A bad omen for…

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Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

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English council results so far via the BBC. pic.twitter.com/a1qcl07rZ3 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 Like opinion polls, it is wise not to focus on one or two councils, but look at the broader picture. Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections…

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Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

Locals 2014: Some of the highlights on a fast moving night

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Losses for Tories & Lib Dems but Labour & UKIP gain council seats – UK #Vote2014 coverage http://t.co/6BCfZPomc6 & pic.twitter.com/hZoTTDnoP9 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 23, 2014 A bad night for UKIP in Eastleigh says our reporter there – not s/thing you'll hear much elsewhere tonight — Ross Hawkins (@rosschawkins) May 23, 2014 LDs hold onto control of Eastleigh where the Westminster seat is a key Ukip target. No good for #GE15 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014…

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Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

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As there are 74 local by-elections being held today it would be impossible to profile them all, so I have chosen the ones that could be rather juicy given the prospect of the expected UKIP flood. Willingham on Cambridgeshire (Con defence) Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of last election in ward (2013): Conservative 882 (40%), United…

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Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

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Since the start of the year, I have been tracking all the polls that have been published about the Euros and taking sage advice from Mike’s postings about polling companies not prompting for the Greens and taking in account all the discussions about what “An Independence from Europe” may have on UKIP, I have come to the following conclusion. It’s too darn close to call. Based on all the polls, I am having a very hard time separating Labour and…

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