Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

Local By-Election Preview: Local Election Polling Day (May 22nd 2014)

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As there are 74 local by-elections being held today it would be impossible to profile them all, so I have chosen the ones that could be rather juicy given the prospect of the expected UKIP flood. Willingham on Cambridgeshire (Con defence) Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3) Result of last election in ward (2013): Conservative 882 (40%), United…

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Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

Harry Hayfield: YouGov have had their say, now it is my turn

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Since the start of the year, I have been tracking all the polls that have been published about the Euros and taking sage advice from Mike’s postings about polling companies not prompting for the Greens and taking in account all the discussions about what “An Independence from Europe” may have on UKIP, I have come to the following conclusion. It’s too darn close to call. Based on all the polls, I am having a very hard time separating Labour and…

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The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

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With Ukip 1% up in final EP2014 YouGov votes going to An Alternative to Europe at top of ballot could swing it pic.twitter.com/1spTU6tsYT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2014 Standby for a row if AIFE’s total is bigger than Ukip’s losing margin With YouGov’s final EP2014 poll showing Ukip with a lead of just 1% it is possible that what stops Farage’s party from winning on votes will be the spoiler party “An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now”….

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The Final YouGov poll on Euros

The Final YouGov poll on Euros

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EXCL: YouGov/Sun projection – UKIP to make history and win tmrw's Euro vote: UKIP 27%, Lab 26% http://t.co/BxDIr0lDej pic.twitter.com/hsgK5eLfgo — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) May 21, 2014   Update the Sun Graphic is incorrect, The Greens are on 10% ahead of the Lib Dems who are on 9% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 21, 2014 Meanwhile The Guardian have an interesting leak. An internal Liberal Democrat document reveals that the party is braced for a complete wipeout in the…

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Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Checking the Political Weather in Wales

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Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…

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If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

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Comres marginals General Election poll LAB 35% CON 33% UKIP 17% LDEM 8% My own Labour/Tory battleground seat poll released Sat @ConHome — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 20, 2014 CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole The main reason why we have marginals polling at all is to find out whether what is happening in the key seats is different from the country as a whole. At a general election voters in these constituencies have a…

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Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

Survation’s poll on the Euros and Westminster VI

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Survation have conducted a poll for the Daily Mirror, the fieldwork was yesterday and today, they polled 1,106 respondents. As usual they have an all voters Voting Intention, and also applied a likelihood to vote (LTV) filter, but additionally this time, they’ve added an additional weighting measure. Respondents who were not aware of the day of the European Parliament Election was, had their likelihood to vote reduced to 0.6 of their expressed likelihood to vote. (So this is what the…

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Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

Corporeal on The Passion of the Ukippers

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As Mike noted at the time the latest round of 2014Euro polls came back with a pretty wide range of results, ranging from UKIP leading by 11 points with ComRes, down to ICM putting them in 3rd and 4 points off the top. So I did a little digging. What I think is causing at least the main part of the disparity is how the different pollsters treat certainty to vote responses. ICM operate a weighting system based on a…

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