Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

Theresa May moves up 15 points and now clear leader in ConHome poll on next party leader

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This is a big blow to Boris It’s hard to see why there’s been such movement in the ConHome regular survey of party members’ views on who should be Dave’s successor. Maybe the rise of UKIP is polarising views in many less connected segments. One thing that strikes me is that with all the focus on the May 22nd elections and their aftermath Boris hasn’t been making the headlines in the way that he was. Best price on Theresa is…

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Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

Christine Lagarde is 4-1 to be next President of the European Commission

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The battle for Presidency of the EU is hotting up Yesterday it was reported by Reuters that: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has asked France whether it would be willing to put forward International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde as president of the European Commission, two French sources briefed on the exchanges said. They said Merkel, Europe’s most powerful political leader, made the inquiry in a private conversation with French President Francois Hollande after European Parliament elections characterised by widespread anti-EU…

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Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

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Newark: The Buttermarket. pic.twitter.com/mfLSoyfP7y — Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) June 2, 2014 Newark UKIP backers defy the polls Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes. The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday. Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race….

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YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

YouGov finds that people are a lot more negative and less positive about UKIP now compared with last Euro elections in 2009

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It’s not all rosy for the purple team The pollster that came top in the EP14 polling accuracy table, YouGov, has issued comparative data about whether people feel positive or negative about UKIP compared with five years ago when they beat LAB for 2nd place in the Euro elections. The data is in the chart and probably reflects that voters are now treating UKIP a lot more seriously than they were five years ago. We’ve seen this trend in other…

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Why People Voted UKIP

Why People Voted UKIP

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As part of the poll conducted for UKIP donor Paul Sykes, ComRes asked How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European elections on Thursday? (Only those that replied 10/10 are shown – 10 being very important) Immigration, EU, Farage, Gay marriage? This chart shows the most important reasons people voted for UKIP at the Euros pic.twitter.com/hry389fUr4 — Tom Mludzinski (@tom_ComRes) June 2, 2014 As we can see, Tighter…

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Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

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Ipsos-Mori have published their latest Indyref phone poll.  The fieldwork was after the Euros, from last Wednesday to this Sunday just gone, Ipsos-Mori say The latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014. Among those certain to vote in the referendum 36% would vote Yes (up by 4 percentage points) while 54% would vote No (down by 3 points) and 10% are undecided (down by 1 point). Both sides will…

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Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

Lord Ashcroft’s Newark poll: Tories set to hold their first by-election while in office since 1989

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UPDATE “Spiral of Silence adjustment gives 4% boost to CON lead With just three days to go the Lord Ashcroft Newark poll is out and has the Tories with a comfortable margin. The figures are in the chart about together with the changes on GE10. This look very easy for the blues although the poll paints a very different picture from the Survation Sun survey on Friday. Which one’s right? But bad news for the blues in latest Ashcroft national…

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From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have attracted the attention it deserves

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Breakdown from specific seats which each had 1,000 sample Preferred GE15 outcome in 26 seats from @LordAshcroft latest marginals polling pic.twitter.com/ZnXsgE7dT8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2014 As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved. This was…

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