At GE15 the result in Watford is set once again to be the most interesting, most argued about and most bet upon

At GE15 the result in Watford is set once again to be the most interesting, most argued about and most bet upon

Comments 0 Comment

You can make a strong case for Red, Blue or Yellow Back at GE2010 we had many arguments and discussions about what would happen in Watford which LAB was defending. Jack W, for instance, argued strongly that this was a Lib Dem gain while I put my money on the Tories. You can see the result by clicking the GE10 tab on the interactive chart. My reasoning was that the overall tide was to the Tories and that the blues…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Preview: June 19th 2014

Local By-Election Preview: June 19th 2014

Comments 0 Comment

Soham South on East Cambridgeshire (Independent Defence) Result of council at last election (2011): Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4 (Conservative overall majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 745, 578, 547 Independent 598, 590 Liberal Democrats 397, 300 Labour 335 Candidates duly nominated: Daniel Divine (UKIP), Gerard Hobbs (Ind), Fiona Ross (Lab), Hamish Ross (Con), Charles Warner (Lib Dem), Geoffrey Woolard (Ind) East Cambridgeshire is another example of what has happened…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline Tweets

Lord Ashcroft’s poll of the CON-LD marginals – the headline Tweets

Comments 0 Comment

Further detail from @LordAshcroft mega-poll of LD-CON marginals pic.twitter.com/pRyRtkw7K8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 What @LordAshcroft poll didn't do was name the candidates/incumbents which is likely to have had an impact. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft poll data on level of campaigning activity by parties in the 17 seats. pic.twitter.com/fx0tjJuHvp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2014 @LordAshcroft Eastleigh poll has the LDs holding in with 12% margin LD 39 CON 27 UKIP 22 This had been key UKIP target…

Read More Read More

On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

Comments 0 Comment

Why LAB strategists won’t be too worried about EdM’s batch of poor personal numbers One of the big factors that makes analysing this election so different from the past is the amount of data in the public domain from which we can measure significant sub-groups – like those 2010 LD voters who have switched to LAB. As I’ve repeatedly said the LD>LAB switchers represents a bigger shift than the entire increase in the CON vote from 1997 to 2010 and…

Read More Read More

Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

Comments 0 Comment

Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re Waiting for Tonight to delurk, then delurk. After you delurk, you’ll be Feelin’ So Good. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Antifrank looks at the Conservative Battleground. Shadsy: Tory Leadership Contests – a betting history Politicians may slug it out, but their distance from the electorate is…

Read More Read More

LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

LAB retains 3 percent lead with Ipsos-MORI but one in two voters think EdM should go

Comments 0 Comment

LAB had 5% lead with @IpsosMORI with all expressing voting preference but down to 3% with those certain to vote See pic.twitter.com/5GpkJphM65 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 Nick Clegg sees best net leader satisfaction change from Ipsos-MORI though starts from low base EdM & Dave both down pic.twitter.com/30U3DbJPIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2014 REVISION 49% of those in the @IpsosMORI sample say EdM should be replaced before GE15. Amongst LAB voters the figure was 43% — Mike Smithson…

Read More Read More

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Comments 0 Comment

One thing’s for sure – NO is not a certainty There’s a new YouGov IndyRef poll out overnght which has, after the exclusion of the DKs, NO with a comfortable 20% lead. This is exactly in line with the average of YouGov IndyRef polls so far this year. This latest survey is in marked contrast to the Panelbase, Survation, and ICM polls of recent days which have all shown a narrowing of the gap. Above is a chart based on…

Read More Read More

The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

Comments 0 Comment

Labour retakes the lead, whilst the Lib Dems hit a record equalling low with ICM. As we can see, there’s not a lot for the three established Westminster parties to cheer about in this poll, whilst Labour will delighted to regain the lead with the Gold Standard of British Polling, both their lead and their share of the vote, isn’t that impressive, by contrast, in June 2009, David Cameron’s Tories were polling 39% and had a 12% lead over Labour….

Read More Read More