Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

Thanet South: Where UKIP is the betting favourite for GE2015 even though the polls have it in 3rd place

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Could Farage be named as candidate quite soon? At the time of the Newark by-election Nigel Farage indicated that he’d be announcing which seat he’d contest at GE2015 by “the end of the month”. Well we’ve now moved into July and we haven’t heard. But the speculation continues that Farage will choose the Kent seat of Thanet South which was won by the Tories from LAB at GE2010. It was one of the seats polled by Lord Ashcroft in May…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

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Wivenhoe Quay on Colchester (Lab defence) Last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 23, Labour 8, Independent 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 5) Last election in ward (2011): Labour 1,279 (57%), Conservative 573 (26%), Greens 217 (10%), Liberal Democrats 172 (8%) Candidates duly nominated: Shaun Boughton (Lib Dem), Tim Glover (Green), Peter Hill (Con), Dave Osborn (Patrotic Socialist), John Pitts (UKIP), Rosalind Scott (Lab) St. James on Northampton (Lab Defence) Last election to council (2011):…

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The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

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By Patrick Briône Director of Research, Survation This week Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, published an article both on YouGov’s website and in The Times newspaper, with his views on why opinion polls in Scotland by different polling companies have produced consistently divergent results on the question of the Scottish independence referendum. His argument was that YouGov’s polling in Scotland was superior to that of Survation (and other polling companies) due to other companies weighting results to 2011 vote, which…

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In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

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Jacques Parizrau, Quebec PM & leader of Parti Québécois resigned in 1995 the day after his referendum defeat pic.twitter.com/VEcUryX2vv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2014 NON won by just over 1% As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk, why not Sit Down and delurk, it’s your Destiny Calling to delurk, if you want to learn if you should have Laid that political bet or not, then PB is the place for you. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the…

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What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

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Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011. Just look…

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The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

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The Scottish Independence Referendum: polls from the last two months (Wikipedia) http://t.co/EdVHyAIdls pic.twitter.com/7po7alHTbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 YouGov’s Peter Kellner fires the opening salvos There was a time when you asked YouGov’s Peter Kellner why his figures were very different from other firms he would respond by saying that he never commented about how other firms operated. No more. Last night Peter launched a sharp attack in a long blog post on some other pollsters, particularly Survation,…

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Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

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Voting intention in my LD-Lab marginals poll, plus Brighton Pavilion: pic.twitter.com/lfGWEXSPAo — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 Labour set for gains as Lib Dem vote share halves in key marginals – my latest battleground polling on @ConHome: http://t.co/JpVP0KdkuP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 My poll of four seats on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, at a glance: pic.twitter.com/OilW2apAKd — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 But the choice of seats ignores the interesting battles Sorry about the delay…

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