Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

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Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014 Time is running out for YES The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb. In a campaign that is…

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The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010

The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010

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Only Ashcroft has CON in the lead The one thing that is absolutely certain about GE2015 is that it will be the most polled general election ever. Today we’ve had four full national voting intention polls which I don’t think has happened since May 5th 2010. Just keeping up has been challenging and interpreting the data even harder. The LAB lead increased with Populus but has dropped with YouGov and ComRes and there’s been crossover with Ashcroft. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

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Tories take lead in new Ashcroft phone poll Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Ashcroft poll changes on last week CON 33 +5 LAB 31 -2 LD 9= UKIP 15 -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 The 5% increase in CON share in Ashcroft poll is outside the margin of error. Is DC's Juncker's stance giving him a boost? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Even though LAB would be behind on…

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The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

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LAB’s chances now rated at below 30% We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority. Check on the chart above to see how things have changed since the budget. A LAB majority down from nearly 40% to 29.8%; CON majority up nearly 5%…

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Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

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If this was the only marginals polling about LAB would be pressing the panic button In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. 25 of the seats included currently have CON MPs – the other 15 LAB ones. When analysing all poll findings from the marginals the key thing is the…

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Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

Exactly 9 months tomorrow the 2010-2015 Parliament will be dissolved triggering the formal start of GE2015

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Are we ready for a five and a half week long campaign? We’ve all known for four years that the Fixed Term Parliament Act lays down that the next general election will be held on May 7th 2015. One thing a lot of people have missed is that the formal campaign period will be far longer than we’ve seen in the past. The 2013 Electoral Registration & Administration Act 2013 extends the length of the statutory timetable for from 17…

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LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll

LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll

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The comparisons in the chart are from Survation poll taken in the days after the May 22nd Euros. The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans. We have always got to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. We need more polling before we can start to draw any conclusions. But Labour…

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